Via David Noll (@davidlnoll), on this day in 2016 Nate Silver of “FiveThirtyEight” fame gave Hillary Rodham Clinton a 78.7% chance of winning the presidency. At the same time, as Mr Silver’s defenders like to remind us, Silver gave Trump a one-in-five chance of winning the 2016 election, while almost everyone else was writing Trump’s chances off completely. Will history repeat itself in 2020? Also, what about prediction markets?
Never Change
Practical Daily Devotions for the Real World
My review of hot sauces, my favorite peppers, and other stuff...
IN MEMORY EVERYTHING SEEMS TO HAPPEN TO MUSIC -Tennessee Williams
Intellectual Thought and Opinion
gehadsjourney.wordpress.com
Welcome to the online home of the IASS
A promise to change your outlook about the entire universe.😉
Viewing the world with a new vision.
Philosophy is all about being curious, asking basic questions. And it can be fun!
Books, papers, and other jurisprudential things
Ramblings of a retiree in France
Entertaining and informing... I think
Never Wanted Perfect Just Real
Until I know this sure uncertainty, I'll entertain the offered fallacy.
Philosophical thought from an amateur and armchair thinker. No expertise, just speculation.
Read to Re-Activate your Thoughts
BOOK REVIEWS
Obsession driven to infinity
BY GRACE THROUGH FAITH
Natalia's space
hoping we know we're living the dream
Lover of math. Bad at drawing.
Natalie. Writer. Photographer. Etc.
Blog about economic history & comparative development
We hike, bike, and discover Central Florida and beyond
A blog about economics, politics and the random interests of forty-something professors
Making it big in business after age 40
Reasoning about reasoning, mathematically.
I don't mean to sound critical, but I am; so that's how it comes across
Your muse for all things beautiful.
development.growth.macro
remember the good old days...
"Let me live, love and say it well in good sentences." - Sylvia Plath
Travel Well
Writing, Reading and Loving Like a Mother
Neuroscience and psychology news and views.
a personal view of the theory of computation
Logic at Columbia University
Editor and writer. Interested in tiny things, nineties nostalgia, old jungle mixtapes, punctuation, and my cats. Not to be fed after midnight.
It seems the polls are either perfectly accurate, largely doctored to suit people’s political dreams, or randomly generated by an enormous system of malfunctioning computers. I’ll take the “malfunctioning computers” explanation any day of the week.
But hey! History might repeat itself.
I voted for the Libertarian ticket in 2016 but am seriously considering abstaining from this year’s election.
It’s a sorry bunch to pick from this season. I can’t help thinking that both candidates are only a disturbing reflection of the current political atmosphere.