A modest proposal (weather models)

I am following the development a new tropical storm in the Caribbean very closely. (This storm is expected to make landfall somewhere on the Florida peninsula next week.) What if, instead of taking the average of all the weather models to predict the trajectory of a tropical storm, the National Weather Service assigned a probability value to each of the possible trajectories based on the past performance of each model?

About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a business law professor at the University of Central Florida.
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