As I see it, a good Bayesian should assign an equal probability to each of these outcomes and then begin updating these priors as new evidence becomes available, right?
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Reblogged this on prior probability and commented:
I am reblogging my pop quiz because, based on the evidence in these reports (see here, here, and here), it looks like the object shot down by the U.S. Air Force on 10 February was a small metallic balloon, which can be purchased at Party City for under $7.00, that was launched by a club of high-altitude-balloon hobbyists that call themselves the “Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade”! I am thus updating my priors in favor of answer choice #3: research. That still leaves, however, two two other unidentified flying objects.