Pop Quiz (2023 UFO edition)

I am reblogging my pop quiz from last week because, based on the evidence in several recent reports (see here, here, and here), it looks like the object shot down by the U.S. Air Force on 10 February was a small metallic balloon, which can be purchased at Party City for under $7.00, that was launched by a club of high-altitude-balloon hobbyists that call themselves the “Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade”! Question: Should I update my priors in favor of answer choice #3 (research), or should I add a new category (hobby balloons) to my quiz? Either way, that still leaves two other unidentified flying objects.

prior probability

As I see it, a good Bayesian should assign an equal probability to each of these outcomes and then begin updating these priors as new evidence becomes available, right?

View original post

About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a business law professor at the University of Central Florida.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s