Below I describe the development and evolution of my retrodiction market model, beginning in the spring of 2021 up to the present:

ACT I: CONSPIRACY THEORY COURTS

1. Spring 2021. In April 2021, I propose a “Conspiracy Theory Court” at a symposium on “Alternative Realities, Conspiracy Theory, and the Constitutional and Democratic Order” (April 16, 2021). The conspiracy theory court would try disputed conspiracy theories (conspiracy theory trials) and provide verdicts. People would be allowed to place bets on the outcomes of these trials.

2. Summer 2021. I read about a new prediction market called Kalshi on Tyler Cowen’s Marginal Revolution blog. (Kalshi is launched in July 2021.)

3. Fall 2021. In September 2021, I re-propose my “Conspiracy Theory Court” idea at the 12th annual meeting of the Association of Law Property & Society (ALPS) (September 25, 2021). During Q & A, a colleague proposes converting my proposed “Conspiracy Theory Court” into a popular game show or reality TV series in order to reach a wider audience. A few weeks later, sometime in October 2021, I receive an email from Professor Steven Brams, who makes an ingenious proposal to me: scrap the conspiracy theory courts and just keep the market.

ACT II: CONSPIRACY THEORY CONTRACTS

4. Spring 2022. I rework my original proposal: I replace my “conspiracy theory court” with “conspiracy theory contracts.” I include a sketch of my “conspiracy theory contracts” idea in my then work-in-progress “The Gödel Conspiracy”. In April 2022, “The Gödel Conspiracy” is published online in volume 15 of the Journal of Law and Public Policy.

5. Fall 2022. I present my revised proposal to economist Tyler Cowen; he objects on lack of liquidity grounds (email correspondence dated Nov. 2, 2022). Then, in November 2022, I present my revised idea (“conspiracy theory contracts”) at the 13th annual Constitutional Law Colloquium at Loyola Law School in Chicago (November 4-5, 2022). I meet David Schraub at the colloquium, and we begin corresponding; among other things; Schraub points out the beauty contest problem.

6. Winter 2023. In January 2023, I submit a new paper titled “Truth Markets” to the Journal of Free Speech Law. In doing a literature review for my new draft, I discover two previous speech market proposals — “Truth Bounties: A Market Solution to Fake News” by Yonathan Arbel and Michael Gilbert as well as “A Market for Truth to Address False Ads on Social Media” by Marshall Van Alstyne — but I reject these proposals because they would require external experts (Arbel & Gilbert) or fact-checkers (Van Alstyne) to determine the truth of disputed ads or claims. My submission is reviewed by two referees but is unjustly rejected because the contracts in my proposed market have no firm resolution date.

ACT III: BELIEF CONTRACTS

7. Spring 2023. I rework my original proposal by replacing my “conspiracy theory contracts” with all-purpose “belief contracts,” and in March 2022, I then present my modified “belief contracts” idea at the 16th annual International Conference on Contracts (KCON XVI) at Texas A&M University (March 17-18, 2023). I meet Yonathan Arbel (co-author of Arbel & Gilbert 2022) at KCON XVI, and we begin corresponding.

8. Summer 2023. A federal court enjoins the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) from closing PredictIt’s event contract market. See Clarke et al. v. CFTC, No. 22-51124 (5th Cir., July 21, 2023), available here: https://perma.cc/NU48-AV3X.

9. Fall 2023. I explore the possibility of substituting “belief contracts” with “dominance assurance contracts.” (See, e.g., Alexander Tabarrok, The private provision of public goods via dominant assurance contracts, Public Choice, Vol. 96 (1998): 345-362.) However, I reject dominance assurance contracts as not feasible/unworkable because an expert is still required to determine if the conditions set forth in the contract have been met. Next, I present my “belief contracts” idea at the JLPP Fall Symposium on “Free Speech and the U.S. Constitution” (Nov. 17, 2021), where I receive detailed and helpful feedback from professors Michael Smith and Charles Reid.

RESOLUTION: A.I. TO THE RESCUE

10. Winter 2024. Vitalik Buterin posts “The promise and challenges of crypto + AI applications” to his website on January 30, 2024—just two days before my draft is due! I discover Buterin’s post via Tyler Cowen’s Marginal Revolution blog on January 31, 2024, and I request an extension of time to revise my paper and submit my draft to the JLPP on February 5, 2024.