To set the stage for the last part of my survey of Adam Smith’s use of probability in The Wealth of Nations, which I will resume on Monday, August 31st, below are links to some of the ground we have covered thus far:

1. Was Adam Smith a closet Bayesian?: Adam Smith uses the words “probability” and “probably” many times in his magnum opus.
2. Adam Smith’s contributions to probability theory?: Following the lead of my colleague Michael Emmett Brady, I single out three passages in The Wealth of Nations where Smith applies the concept of probability to economic behavior.
3. Adam Smith, Richard Price, and risk management: Smith anticipates the idea of “imprecise probabilities” in his description of the insurance business. (hat tip: Prof. Brady)
4. Politics and probability: Amid his discussion of retaliatory tariffs, Smith makes an important insight: when we are trying to figure out what the probability of a given event is (e.g., the probability that policy X will work as intended), we also have to figure out who is in the best position to calculate what the relevant probabilities are!
5. Adam Smith on self-deception: Smith explains why our career choices are like a lottery, why this lottery is sometimes rigged for or against us, and why some people prefer lotteries with negative expected value.
6. Adam Smith’s allegory: the lottery of life: I identify some open questions about Adam Smith’s lottery allegory.