Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Some media outlets (like this one) are reporting that Communist dictator Kim Jung Un is either dead or critically ill. Good riddance, motherfucker! If only the same fate were to befall the corrupt dictators of Cuba, Russia, and Venezuela!

Review of Chapter 5 of “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke In our previous post, we described Annie Duke’s unorthodox suggestion to her readers in Chapter 4 of her book “Thinking in Bets.” To sum it up, if you want … Continue reading →

Review of Chapter 4 of “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke Thus far, we have seen how motivated reasoning impairs our ability to make good decisions (Chapter 2) and how self-serving bias impedes our ability to accurately assess the outcomes … Continue reading →

What if Hallmark made fancy sympathy cards that memorialized various types of academic failures? I am interrupting my extended review of “Thinking in Bets” (which will resume on Monday) to share the whimsical academic-failure sympathy cards pictured below. These were … Continue reading →

Review of Chapter 3 of “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke As we saw in my previous post, Chapter 2 of “Thinking in Bets” is devoted to the problem of motivated reasoning. Next, Chapter 3 explores another form of mental … Continue reading →

Review of Chapter 2 of “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke Chapter 2 of Annie Duke’s beautiful book contains so many powerful ideas that I cannot do it justice in a short blog post, but I will nevertheless try. Among … Continue reading →

Review of Chapter 1 of “Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke Chapter 1 of “Thinking in Bets” concludes with this pithy phrase: “… you’ve been betting all along.” These five words not only capture one of Annie Duke’s main ideas; … Continue reading →

Originally posted on prior probability:
Hey, where is my mask? In the mail? If the Mayor of Los Angeles is going to make the wearing of masks compulsory (see here), then shouldn’t City Hall provide masks to anyone who needs…