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Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol
The economics of Christmas
How “inefficient” is Christmas and the tradition of gift-giving generally? According to this paper, The deadweight loss of Christmas, published in the prestigious American Economics Review 20 years ago this month (and from which the figure above is taken), holiday gift-giving … Continue reading
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Tagged cheap talk, Christmas, Deadweight Loss, Economics, Gifts, scientism
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Bayes again …
Brian McGill, an ecologist at the University of Maine and fellow blogger at Dynamic Ecology, recently wrote (last June) a helpful overview and nuanced critique of Bayesian probability titled “Why saying you are a Bayesian is a low information statement“. We not … Continue reading
Madiba … Bayesian hero
The dramatic story of how Nelson Mandela reconsidered his long-held Marxist views and updated his political and economic priors is retold in this fascinating report “How Mandela Shifted Views on Freedom of Markets” published on 10 December 2013 in the New York … Continue reading
The Bayesian approach to sports
Consider the following image from ESPN Stats & Info (via Twitter): This past Sunday afternoon, the overrated Dallas Cowboys led the venerable and tenacious Green Bay Packers by a score of 26-3 at halftime, yet the Cowboys somehow blew their large … Continue reading
Earth Wind Map
prior probability enjoys collecting maps of various kinds, especially during our foreign travels. Our quirky and eclectic collection includes maps of the Amazon, the Moscow Metro, and the Berlin Wall, among many others. But we recently discovered (through digg.com) the most beautiful … Continue reading
Why don’t more people play “credit card roulette”?
Credit Card Roulette or CCR is “a way of gambling for bills, usually played for the purpose of settling restaurant checks, by randomly drawing one participant’s credit card.” The website pokerterms.com (from which my definition of CCR is borrowed) offers the following illustration of … Continue reading
We lost a good man today
My mentor and friend Stan Talcott left us last night. I have so many fond memories of Stan, I don’t know where to begin. He was the quintessential “open door” man, always willing to share his time and good counsel … Continue reading
Are “swing voters” good Bayesians?
I was trying to explain Bayesian probability to my eldest daughter Adela Luisa the other day. (She is only 13, but she is super smart.) In the process of explaining Bayes’ theorem to her, however, I realized that many areas … Continue reading
“It’s not that I’m so smart …
… it’s just that I stay with problems longer.” ~ Albert Einstein Aside from this beautiful quote from a beautiful mind, here are some concrete exam tips for my Torts class. First and foremost, remember that Torts is ultimately about … Continue reading
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