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Tag Archives: Bayes’ Rule
Bayesian billiards
This simple thought-experiment appears in the first draft of our latest paper: Imagine a large square table [like the one pictured above] so level that any billiard ball thrown upon the table has an equal chance of landing on any part of the … Continue reading
Fair or foul? Bayesian reasoning and Flight 370
Note: this post was revised and expanded during the morning of 20 March 2014. What happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370? Specifically, do you have any “priors” about what may have happened, e.g. sabotage, terrorism, pilot error, mechanical failure, an electrical … Continue reading
Are “swing voters” good Bayesians?
I was trying to explain Bayesian probability to my eldest daughter Adela Luisa the other day. (She is only 13, but she is super smart.) In the process of explaining Bayes’ theorem to her, however, I realized that many areas … Continue reading
Time travel thought experiment
If you could go back in time and share one piece of scientific knowledge from today, what time period would you choose, what would you share, and how might that information change the course of history? I am a big … Continue reading
prior probability 