Tag Archives: Bayesian probability

Are we all Bayesians now?

F. D. Flam’s essay “The Odds, Continually Updated” revisits the famous Monty Hall Problem and appears in this week’s Science Times. (The science section of the N.Y. Times, which appears every Tuesday, offers a fascinating glimpse into the wonderful world of … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Science | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Bayes again …

Brian McGill, an ecologist at the University of Maine and fellow blogger at Dynamic Ecology, recently wrote (last June) a helpful overview and nuanced critique of Bayesian probability titled “Why saying you are a Bayesian is a low information statement“. We not … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Madiba … Bayesian hero

The dramatic story of how Nelson Mandela reconsidered his long-held Marxist views and updated his political and economic priors is retold in this fascinating report “How Mandela Shifted Views on Freedom of Markets” published on 10 December 2013 in the New York … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The Bayesian approach to sports

Consider the following image from ESPN Stats & Info (via Twitter): This past Sunday afternoon, the overrated Dallas Cowboys led the venerable and tenacious Green Bay Packers by a score of 26-3 at halftime, yet the Cowboys somehow blew their large … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Prior probability 101

Here are the opening lines of Wikipedia’s excellent entry for the Bayesian concept of prior probability: … a prior probability distribution, often called simply the prior, of an uncertain quantity p (for example, suppose p is the proportion of voters who will vote for the politician named … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment