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The perils of an electronic police state
When did the USA become an electronic police state? Check out this recent report in the Times titled “Other Agencies Clamor for Data NSA Compiles.” Here is just one except from this fascinating report: “Typically, the agencies request that the … Continue reading
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Tagged NSA, Secret Courts, Surveillance, Warrantless Searches
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Information externalities
Information wants to be free … except on Twitter? Lots of people say they are for free speech, except when they are not … Is there a principled or “right” way of drawing the line between free speech and prohibited speech?
Why are so many great beers brewed in Belgium?
According to Wikipedia, there are some 178 breweries in Belgium, a small country about the same size as the State of Maryland … Yet it’s not just the sheer quantity of breweries in such a little country that astounds prior probability … Continue reading
Prior Probability Primer
This blog is about the concept of “prior probability” and how it applies to life, love, and law. But what is a “prior probability”? Wikipedia offers the following technical definition of this concept: “… a prior probability distribution, often called simply … Continue reading
Pop Quiz
There are reports that Major League Baseball will announce some player suspensions this Monday, 5 August. What is the probability that star player Alex Rodriguez will be suspended? (a) No penalty (b) Small suspension (e.g., until the end of the … Continue reading
How fragile is the “rule of law”?
This is not a mere academic or philosophical quibble. Here, for example, are various reports describing recent developments affecting the “rule of law” in Egypt, Israel, Italy, USA, and Zimbabwe. This parade of horribles is not meant to be a representative sample, but it does … Continue reading
Markets & Morality
This report in yesterday’s Times, which describes a thriving black market in China for phony receipts, begins thus: “To begin to comprehend China’s vast underground economy, one need only visit this city’s major transportation depots and watch as peddlers openly … Continue reading
“You are not so smart”
prior probability is sure you have heard of the famous placebo effect in medicine, but have you ever heard of “placebo buttons”??? Thanks (once again) to the amazing Tyler Cowen, I found this fascinating exposé of placebo buttons on David Craney’s … Continue reading
A contract is a bet …
Charles Fried, a law professor at Harvard, famously argued that a contract is a promise. We at prior probability, however, say that a contract is more like a bet. Consider the relation between sports contracts in baseball and hitting success. … Continue reading
Is legal positivism finally dead?
Legal positivism is an influential descriptive theory of law; its main claim, in brief, is that law and morality are separate. Along comes David Gray Carlson, a law professor at Yeshiva University, who recently published this thought-provoking paper on “Legal Positivism and Russell’s … Continue reading
