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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Will Puerto Rico become the 51st State?
Yesterday, the Committee on Energy & Natural Resources of the U.S. Senate held yet another committee meeting to hear testimony on the political status of Puerto Rico. (I say “yet another committee meeting” because Puerto Rico has been a de facto and … Continue reading
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Tagged Commonwealth, Condorcet's Paradox, Independence, Puerto Rico, Statehood
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When will the U.S. release its remaining political prisoners?
Consider the case of Oscar Lopez Rivera, a Puerto Rican Nationalist who was convicted and sentenced to 70 years in prison for “seditious conspiracy” and has already served more than 32 years of his unjust sentence (more time than Nelson Mandela spent … Continue reading
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Tagged conditional clemency, Oscar Lopez Rivera, political prisoners, seditious conspiracy
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Edward Snowden, state secrets, and double standards
Edward Snowden has been charged by the U.S. Government with stealing and disclosing classified information. But prior probability would ask, didn’t our Government itself unlawfully “steal” the data that Mr Snowden eventually disclosed? Cartoon courtesy of http://lolzparade.com/politics/edward-snowden-timeline?page=5
Is Facebook the next tech bubble?
Some say yes, but many others say no (*). (*) i.e., presumably those investors or speculators who have bought Facebook stock since its IPO last year. Graphic courtesy of http://ehow-to-do.com/how-ponzi-schemes-work
Is Bitcoin a scam?
Bitcoin is an open-source, peer-to-peer, electronic currency. In brief, the Bitcoin concept was introduced in 2008 in a paper by “Satoshi Nakamoto,” a mysterious person (or possibly a group of persons) whose true identity is still unknown. Furthermore, according to this … Continue reading
What is the probability that a large asteroid will collide with Earth?
According to Wikipedia, asteroids with a 1 km diameter strike Earth every 500,000 years on average. Moreover, “Large collisions–with 5 km (3 mi) objects–happen approximately once every twenty million years. The last known impact of an object of 10 km (6 mi) or more in diameter was … Continue reading
The strategy of escalator conflicts
prior probability asks, should you walk or stand when your are going up (or down) an escalator? The solution to this problem is apparently non-trivial. Here, for example, is one recent BBC report on this question. Here is another take on this question, and here is … Continue reading
Another reason why taxis are so overpriced …
… because airports like SFO are criminalizing rideshare apps like Lyft, Sidecar and Uber. The title of this report, for example, says it all: “SFO Officials Make Citizen Arrests Of Internet Rideshare Drivers.” According to this report, San Francisco International Airport officials have been … Continue reading
Robin Hanson asks, “Why do bets look bad?”
prior probability really enjoys Robin Hanson’s blog Overcoming Bias and admire his cutting-edge academic work, especially his project on prediction markets. Recently, Hanson proposed a number of reasons why people might reasonably refuse to place bets to back up their beliefs. Although betting might not be … Continue reading
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Tagged bets, legal failure, Prediction Markets, Robin Hanson
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Do incentives matter?
Of course they do, and that’s why law and legal institutions should avoid perverse incentives … Courtesy of SMBC
