prior probability

As I have gathered additional information about the many individuals in Adam Smith’s social circle during his 1766 sojourn in Paris, I have made significant revisions to Part 1 of my “Smith in the City” paper. I will most likely be making further corrections and revisions and will then post a “final” draft of the paper by the end of next week; in the meantime, however, here is a link to the most recent version of my work.

I first heard about the picture book “Bayesian Probability for Babies” last year, but the YouTube video below takes us on a page-by-page tour of the book. I am tempted to write a review!

I hate to be “that guy” but according to this 1985 Associated Press report, Jesus may have been born in late July!

Further proof the New York Times outshines even North Korean propaganda standards.

Although the “Republic of Gran Colombia” in South America was short-lived (1819 to 1831), political unions in other parts of the world have survived for much longer. On this day (July 22) in 1706, for example, the terms of a treaty creating a political union between the kingdoms of England and Scotland were finalized. Via Wikipedia: “The Treaty of Union is the name usually now given to the treaty [that] led to the creation of the new state of Great Britain, stating that the Kingdom of England (which already included Wales) and the Kingdom of Scotland were to be ‘United into One Kingdom by the Name of Great Britain’. At the time it was more often referred to as the Articles of Union. The details of the Treaty were agreed on 22 July 1706, and separate Acts of Union were then passed by the parliaments of England and Scotland to put the agreed Articles into effect. The political union took effect on 1 May 1707.”

Via Wikipedia: “The Colombian Declaration of Independence occurred on July 20, 1810 when the Junta de Santa Fe was formed in [Bogota], the capital of the Spanish colonial Viceroyalty of New Granada, to govern the territory autonomously from Spain. The event inspired similar independence movements across Latin America, and triggered an almost decade-long rebellion culminating in the founding of the Republic of Gran Colombia, which spanned present-day Colombia, mainland Ecuador, Panama, and Venezuela, along with parts of northern Peru and northwestern Brasil. Although Gran Colombia would ultimately dissolve in 1831, it was for a time among the most powerful countries in the Western Hemisphere, and played an influential role in shaping the political development of other newly sovereign Latin American states.”

I forgot to mention that I was interviewed last month about my work on “Gödel’s Loophole.” The interview was conducted by Yury Tsukanov, who produces original and entertaining videos about various aspects of mathematics and mathematical concepts. Here is a link to his excellent YouTube channel “MetaMaths“, and below is the interview itself (duration: one hour).

One of the things I love about Bogota are the Colombian city’s many independently-owned bookstores. By way of example, check out this essay (in Spanish) by Arantxa Diaz Aguirre describing five of Bogota’s most beloved bookstores. Here is an excerpt (my translation):

Since the 1990s Calle 16, on the corner of Carrera Eight, has transformed its gray sidewalks into paths of books and secondary texts that have welcomed the world of arts and letters to the center of Bogotá. Old houses became huge bookstores, uninhabited premises were filled with bookshelves, and the term "callejón de los libreros" (booksellers' alley) became popular....

Hasta pronto!