prior probability

As I mentioned in my previous post (see here), between the publication of the second and third editions of his Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith published a separate 79-page pamphlet titled Additions and Corrections to the First and Second Editions of Dr. Adam Smith’s Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1784). Smith’s supplement, which is available here, contains 13 separate substantive inserts or additions to the first two editions of The Wealth of Nations. The shortest of these inserts consists of just 39 words, while the longest one contains 40 paragraphs spread across 32 pages, including a single paragraph that spans almost eight full pages! For reference, below is a full breakdown of all 13 parts of Smith’s 1784 supplement:

1. Part #1 = 1 paragraph; 6 sentences (14 lines)
2. Part #2 = 2 paragraphs; 7 sentences (20 lines)
3. Part #3 = 1 paragraph; 1 sentence (4 lines)
4. Part #4 = 1 paragraph; 12 sentences (36 lines)
5. Part #5 = 2 paragraphs; 15 sentences (55 lines)
6. Part #6 = 9 paragraphs; 37 sentences (121 lines)
7. Part #7 = 1 paragraph; 3 sentences (10 lines)
8. Part #8 = 4 paragraphs; 18 sentences (73 lines)
9. Part #9 = 1 paragraph; 1 sentence (5 lines)
10. Part #10 = 2 paragraphs; 5 sentences (17 lines)
11. Part #11 = 13 paragraphs, plus two tables, spread across nine pages
12. Part #12 = 54 paragraphs spread across 24 pages
13. Part #13 = 40 paragraphs spread across 32 pages

Why did Smith make these 13 separate “additions and corrections”? What did he have to say in each one? And to what extent do these new additions reflect what Smith may have learned first-hand as an official Commissioner of Scottish Customs and Salt Duties, a full-time post he had held from February 1778? I will proceed to the substance of these 13 additions starting on Monday, 29 June.

At the Adam Smith conference in Paris that I attended earlier this month (10 June; see here), historian Emma Rothschild (pictured below, along with the cover of her beautiful 2021 book An Infinite History) brought to my attention the following fact: between the publication of the second and third editions of his Wealth of Nations, the Scottish scholar published a separate 79-page pamphlet titled Additions and Corrections to the First and Second Editions of Dr. Adam Smith’s Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1784). (Smith’s supplement is available here.) Suffice it to say that I have finally got around to reading Smith’s pamphlet, and I will begin describing its contents here in the next or day two.

On this day (24 June) in 1724, Johann Sebastian Bach led the first performance of Christ, unser Herr, zum Jordan kam (BWV 7), the third cantata of his chorale cantata cycle, at St. Nicholas Church in Leipzig. Bach had composed this great work to commemorate Johannistag, the Nativity of John the Baptist, which is celebrated by Christians on this day.

Clarence Thomas was born on this day (23 June) in 1948 in the segregated Deep South (Pin Point, Georgia), while Sonia Maria Sotomayor was born on 25 June 1954 in the Bronx, New York, to Puerto Rican parents. Below is a lecture she gave at the University of Alabama in April of this year:

For his part, of the 116 judges who have served on the Supreme Court of the United States, Thomas (the only true originalist on the high court today; see here, for example) is the second longest-serving justice in our nation’s history. Below is a lecture he gave at the University of Texas (Austin) in April of this year:

As an aside, the comments section on one of the two YouTube videos above is shut down. Can you guess which one?

Last week, Cuba’s corrupt Prime Minister Manuel Marrero (see here) proposed a package of free market reforms, including the legalization of private businesses in agriculture and tourism. According to one report, these proposed economic reforms “significantly expand the private sector six decades after Cuba’s communist leaders forbade all private business—even frita stands—and adopted a centrally planned economy model that ended up ruining the country ….” Source: Nora Gámez Torres, Miami Herald (19 June 2026), “Cuba to privatize state companies; opens banking and energy to foreign and private capital.” See also Carlos S. Maldonado, El País (19 June 2026): “Cuba se abre al capitalismo y aprueba su mayor reforma en décadas: banca privada, mercado de cambios y fin de los subsidios.” It’s unclear, however, when these reforms will take effect, and Cuba’s corrupt communist government remains a one-party military dictatorship.

According to Wikipedia, Michael Jackson’s “Off the wall” album was released 47 summers ago (on 10 August 1979) by Epic Records and features songwriting contributions from music legends David Foster, Paul McCartney, Rod Temperton, and Stevie Wonder (among others), as well as three tracks penned by MJ himself:

• “Don’t Stop ‘Til You Get Enough” (track #1)
• “Workin’ Day and Night” (track #3)
• “Get on the Floor” (track #4; co-written by MJ & Louis Johnson)

One of my favorite papers at this year’s Adam Smith conference in Glasgow was Erik W. Matson’s “Minding the Gaps: Reality, Theory, and Policy in Adam Smith”, which will be published in Volume 30 of The Independent Review. In summary, Professor Matson’s thesis is that the The Wealth of Nations exemplifies two eternal gaps in the world of ideas. One is the practical gap between Smith’s economic and political theory (e.g. people should be free to pursue any trade) and public policy (e.g. occupational licensure), which as Matson explains inevitably arises from considerations of political feasibility and the existence of entrenched interest groups. The other is the epistemological gap between reality or the facts we seek to explain and our theories or efforts to explain them. Here is a link to an ungated version Professor Matson’s thoughtful paper.

After a full day of panels at this year’s Adam Smith conference in Glasgow, I will be watching the Group C stage match between Scotland and Morocco at Boteco do Brasil in the Merchant City tonight.

This time around, the weather in Glasgow is cold (by Florida standards) and rainy, so I am reblogging some pictures from my 2023 visit to Glesga, Scotland’s friendliest city.

I will be attending a joint meeting of British Academy and the International Adam Smith Society (IASS) on Erik W. Matson’s “The World in 1776/2026: The Wealth of Nations at 250” at the University of Glasgow (pictured below) for the remainder of this week. Among other things, I will be presenting my work-in-progress (with Alain Alcouffe) on Adam Smith’s intellectual encounters in Geneva in late 1765-early 1766 as well as my forthcoming book (with Salim Rashid) Beyond the Adam Smith Problem: Ethics, Economics, and Society. The full program of this week’s Adam Smith conference is available here.