prior probability

Is baseball too slow?

Posted on March 11, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

My daughter Adys Ann and I attended a Spring Training baseball game between the Minnesota Twins and the Toronto Blue Jays in Dunedin, Fla. yesterday afternoon. While my little one was napping during the first few innings of the game, I kept track of the game by keeping a scorecard. If you have never kept a scorecard in baseball before, let me assure you that keeping a scorecard is a labor-intensive and time-consuming task, but in my opinion, it is the best way to really appreciate all the ins and outs of a game. This experience also got me to thinking about how so many sports writers–including reporters at the Wall Street Journal and Sports Illustrated–have complained that the game of baseball is too slow. I respectfully disagree. The game is not slow at all when you are trying to keep a scorecard …

Posted in Culture, Sports, Time | Tagged Baseball | Leave a comment

Dance of the space satellites

Posted on March 10, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Via Michael Franco at CNET: “Looking at this animation, you might be surprised by just how crowded the satellite space around our planet is. But remember, this animation only shows 19 Earth-observing NASA satellites. According to a roundup of all satellite launches through summer of last year by the Union of Concerned Scientists, there are actually 1,235 satellites soaring around the planet. That’s over 100 times the traffic you see in this NASA video.”

Posted in Science | Tagged Space, Spontaneous Order | Leave a comment

Crimes against logic

Posted on March 8, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Via reddit, why don’t they teach this in law school?

Posted in Logical Fallacies, Questions Rarely Asked | Tagged Logical reasoning | Leave a comment

McDonald’s menu (circa 1973)

Posted on March 7, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

McDonald's menu during 1973.

When was the last time you ate at McDonald’s and how sucky was your meal there? This “old-school” McDonald’s menu from 1973 explains why McDonald’s is so awful today … The fast-food chain tries to do too many different things instead of just focusing on a small subset of things. (Via reddit.)

Postscript: Prior Probability will stop blogging on ~~Sundays~~ Mondays.

Posted in Culture, Economics | Tagged A theory of McDonald's sulkiness, Fast food | 1 Comment

Academic R&D Expenditures (2005-2012)

Posted on March 7, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Via Professor Michael Risch at The Faculty Lounge: “This chart tells us a lot of things. First, it shows that the supposedly huge spending on law scholarship is actually tiny when compared to many other fields. (If you can’t read it, that’s Billions on the Y axis.) Indeed, for the amount [of legal scholarship] produced, it’s a downright bargain. So, if you think [the] quality and usefulness [of legal scholarship] is low, perhaps you get what you pay for.”

Posted in Academia, Law, Questions Rarely Asked | Tagged Research | Leave a comment

Nickel and dimed (Winter Park, Florida edition)

Posted on March 6, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

This is what the back of a Winter Park, Fla. parking ticket looks like. Notice how you get only five calendar days to contest the citation, and in order to do so, you must show up in person at a police station. Notice too the “Thank You” at the bottom of the citation. At least the ~~parking enforcement unit~~ tax collectors in Winter Park are polite about stealing your money.

Posted in Economics, Law | Tagged Parking, Winter Park | 1 Comment

Glorified tax collectors? (Ferguson, Missouri edition)

Posted on March 5, 2015 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Our friend and colleague Alex Tabarrok has posted his thoughts on “The Ferguson Kleptocracy” earlier today. In addition to a grab bag of (representative?) anecdotes, Professor Tabarrok notes, among other things, that “last year Ferguson drivers paid $12,400 in fines for driving cars with tinted windows. They paid another $4,905 for loud music coming out of their cars.” We’re not so sure what to make of these facts, however. Are they evidence of overzealous and oppressive law enforcement in the service of revenue collection (i.e. hidden taxes), or are they part of an aggressive broken-windows strategy for preventing more serious crimes from being committed (i.e. a signal to would-be criminals)? Also, as far as we are concerned, people who play loud music in their cars are generally rude and inconsiderate and should be fined … Continue reading →