That is the title of our latest paper on the blue bus problem, a favorite law-school hypothetical of torts and evidence professors. (We wrote up a first draft of our paper in Tarpon Springs, Florida during the summer of 2013 and made some stylistic as well as substantive revisions more recently in preparation for our paper’s forthcoming publication in volume 7 of the Washington University Jurisprudence Review.) Briefly, the main contribution of our paper is that we visualize the blue bus problem using Bayesian methods of probabilistic reasoning. By the way, although many legal scholars — most recently Edward Cheng — have applied Bayesian methods to the blue bus problem, none have taken a visual approach to the problem. Ironically, however, trial attorneys routinely rely on visual forms of evidence (e.g., pictures, objects, scale models, etc.) when presenting their cases to juries. In our blue bus paper, then, we follow the lead of trial lawyers and present a Bayesian approach to the blue bus problem in visual form using numerical frequencies instead of fractions or percentages. In addition to solving the blue bus problem, our larger aim is to reevaluate the problem of probabilistic proof and make the case for Bayesian methods in civil and criminal adjudication generally.
Addendum: By the way, while we’re on the subject of ESPN’s three-week suspension of Bill Simmons, check out this original analysis of the economics of employee suspensions here. (Tyler Cowen offers two possible economic explanations of employee suspensions.) This part of Professor Cowen’s post in particular caught our attention: “If I were the commissioner, I would be insulted by the suspension of Simmons. It suggests these are words which cannot be said, perhaps because they will elicit audience assent. The suspension also signals that ESPN regards the commissioner as quite thin-skinned and presumably — especially if he is indeed thin-skinned! — he could be offended by that too.”
Is Wal-Mart legally liable for the wrongful death of John Crawford III? The victim was carrying an air rifle sold at the store.
In terms of writing and thinking, we are most productive in the mornings. We are in good company in this regard: Continue reading
We just found a 1963 reprint of W.W. Sawyer’s little book Mathematician’s Delight at Mostly Books, a family-owned bookstore on 529 Bainbridge Street in Philadelphia. In chapter 2 of his book, which was first published in 1943, Prof. Sawyer notes “the connexion between reason and imagination,” stating that “reason is … an experiment carried out in the imagination.” (What an amazing and beautiful phrase; the italics are Sawyer’s.) He also describes — and defends — simple models this way (again, emphasis in original):
It is impossible to imagine any event in perfect detail. In attacking any problem, we simplify the situation to a certain extent. We do not bother about those facts which seem unimportant. The result of our reasoning will be correct if the picture in our imagination is, not exactly correct, but sufficiently correct for the purpose in hand.
In other words, abstraction, parsimony, and reduction are not only necessary and unavoidable in solving problems logically. Abstraction, reduction, etc. can be helpful too.
Tattoos have a long history (even Queen Victoria reportedly had a tattoo; see the TED video below), but why do people get tattoos? We see tattoos (or “body art” more generally) as a form of signaling, so what does a tattoo signal, especially to prospective partners and employers? Also, from a legal perspective, can a tattoo be copyrighted? That is, can there be property rights in tattoos?
1. Is there a single set of identifiable and determinate principles that animate the U.S. Constitution (or Great Britain’s unwritten constitution, for that matter)? If so, what are they?
2. What is the role of State and federal courts, if any, in policing compliance with the Constitution’s structural limitations? (Yes, this is a trick question, since judges don’t really have the power to arrest the President or members of Congress.)
3. Does the Constitution embody freedom of contract to the degree that Richard Epstein suggests in Chapter 21 of his book “The Classical Liberal Constitution”? What is a “classical liberal” constitution? Were the framers themselves “classical liberals?”
Bonus Question: Do any of the above constitutional questions have a “correct” or determinate answer? How do we test the truth or falsity of the answers to these questions?
As we noted in our previous post, we are attending a two-day colloquium on Richard A. Epstein’s latest tome The Classical Liberal Constitution. At the end of yesterday’s discussion, one legal scholar (Thomas Merrill) posed the following fundamental question: Do we need a theory of the Constitution to understand constitutional cases or do constitutional law? Our answer to this question is an unequivocal NO. We don’t need constitutional theory because constitutional theory is totally unfalsifiable. In short, there is no way of testing whether one’s preferred theory is true or false. Instead, constitutional theory is just a matter of aesthetics or politics. Are we wrong?
Preaching to the choir?
That is the title of Richard A. Epstein’s latest book. We are attending a two-day colloquium in Philadelphia this week-end to discuss various aspects of Prof. Epstein’s book with a small group of other legal scholars. We will keep you posted.
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