prior probability

Are you a square or a sharp?

Posted on February 2, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this report in the Sunday Times about sports gambling. Here is one tantalizing excerpt:

In the world of sports gambling, there are two types of people: squares and sharps. Squares make bets based on hunches, hometown favoritism, emotion. Nearly everybody who bets is a square — about 97 percent of sports bettors lose money long-term. Sharps, by contrast, are those few who can figure out how to beat bookmakers. To them, games aren’t athletic contests so much as complex probability generators. “Forget jerseys and pompoms and who is going to lift the Lombardi Trophy,” V. R. told me. “You don’t bet teams. You bet numbers.”

To a great extent, the same thing could be said about almost every decision one makes in life. Every choice is a gamble. So why are most people squares instead of sharps?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Life, Probability, Sports | Leave a comment

TSA takings

Posted on February 1, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Jason Edward Harrington, a former TSA agent in Chicago, has written a scathing critique of the TSA, perhaps the most despised and bloated government bureaucracy since the Soviet era. Here is an excerpt:

Once, in 2008, I had to confiscate a bottle of alcohol from a group of Marines coming home from Afghanistan. It was celebration champagne intended for one of the men in the group—a young, decorated soldier. He was in a wheelchair, both legs lost to an I.E.D., and it fell to me to tell this kid who would never walk again that his homecoming champagne had to be taken away in the name of national security.

Assuming that this sad and sorry tale is true (*), prior probability sees not only another petty act of public tyranny; we also see a government-sponsored taking of private property without just compensation in complete violation of the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment. Where is Richard Epstein when you need him?

(*) According to Mr Harrington’s own account, the soldiers were returning from the theatre of war (not departing), so why would the TSA have to confiscate their liquids? Or were they in transit to another airport?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Coercion, Public Choice, Risk Assessment, Takings | Leave a comment

What does the ideal airline boarding pass look like?

Posted on January 31, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

According to Pete Smart, who gave this simple question some sustained thought during a nine-hour layover one day, it looks like this:

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Information, Travel | 1 Comment

Thursday Paradox

Posted on January 30, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

This ancient paradox, which is brought to us courtesy of Esther Inglis-Arkell at io9.com, involves two different-sized wheels, one inside another. The two wheels travel in sync over a certain distance as in this animation below:

The wheel paradox that stumped Aristotle and Galileo

But should the smaller inside wheel rotate over the same distance as the larger external wheel? As Ms Inglis-Arkell states: If you look at the animated gif above, both wheels use their entire circumference to trace the same amount of distance – the red line. Clearly one circumference is smaller than the other. Either that means that the wheels have the same circumference, which they don’t, or that different circumferences “unroll” to the same length, which they can’t.

What is the solution to this puzzle?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Puzzles, Wheel Paradox | 2 Comments

Legal systems of the world

Posted on January 29, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Wikimedia Commons — click to enlarge.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Law, Legal Systems | 1 Comment

What is the probability of going pro?

Posted on January 28, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this interactive website at visual.ly which calculates the odds that any given high school athlete will go on to play sports in college or in a professional sports league. Here is a sample:

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Probability, Sports | Leave a comment

The Malboro Man has died

Posted on January 27, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Fox News is reporting that Eric Lawson, an actor who portrayed the Malboro Man in cigarette ads, has died from smoking-related diseases.

He was 72.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Products Liability, Risk | 1 Comment

A modest (NFL) proposal

Posted on January 25, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Last week, the commissioner of the National Football League, Roger Goodell, proposed an interesting idea–abolishing the extra point after a touchdown. (As an aside, check out Aaron Gordon’s excellent behavioral analysis of this proposal.) But if we’re going to reform the rules of the game, why not start with the lowly field goal? Specifically, why is the value of a field goal the same (3 points) independent of the length of the field goal attempt? Shouldn’t longer field goal attempts be worth more points than shorter one? In short, why not consider creating a four-point field goal line at the 50-yard line (similar to the three-point line in basketball) so that field goal attempts from beyond the 50-yard line would be worth four instead of just three points?