Mr. Monopoly has a Facebook page

Note: this post was revised and expanded during the morning of 26 March 2014.

Did you know that Mr Monopoly — the iconic, mustachioed, round little man in a top hat and coattails who also happens to be the official mascot of the Monopoly board game — has his own Facebook page? It’s not your typical lame corporate website, however. Instead, Mr Monopoly is taking suggestions, inviting people to make changes to his classic game. From Mr Monopoly’s website:

We all know there are many ways to play Monopoly … and they’re not always according to the rule book. Here’s your chance to see your favorite house rule become a part of the Monopoly game!

By the way, is Mr Monopoly’s Facebook page a sign of things to come? Do you expect the makers of the other board games to ask their players directly via the world wide web for rule suggestions? Will the US Congress or the UK Parliament try this method one day? But back to the subject at hand, if you could change any of the official rules of Monopoly, or add a new rule to the game, which rule would you change or add, and why?

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Why do criminal defendants get to plead the Fifth?

Put differently, if you could turn back the clock or re-write the Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution, would you take out the right against self-incrimination? If you care about truth, or about the victims of crime, the answer has to be YES, right?  Here is an extended critique of the constitutional right against self-incrimination by Bennet Haselton, who makes a provocative though persuasive case against allowing criminal suspects to plead the Fifth and answers every possible objection you may have …

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Do women attorneys dress too sexy?

According to this recent report by Slate staff writer Amanda Hess, a lot of judges (most of whom are male, by the way) apparently seem to think so. But as Ms Hess notes in her report, the dress code for women attorneys has changed over time: “Prior to the 1980s,” for example, “it would have been scandalous for a lady lawyer to approach the bench wearing pants.” More importantly, why are women still being judged in this day and age by the way they dress? Remember, not so long ago, women used to be excluded altogether from learned professions like law. Until the gender imbalance on the bench is remedied, let’s give our mothers, sisters, and daughters a break on this one …

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Economists are not scientists

Sorry Professor Mankiw, but economics is not really a science. Economics is politics and normative value judgements all the way down, and you yourself end up admitting as much in your most recent essay in the Sunday Times. So why do you insist on calling economists “scientists”? Just because your colleagues and you continue to repeat the same form of wishful thinking over and over again doesn’t make it true. Please …

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NBA “pass probabilities” (San Antonio Spurs edition)

EPV-chart-features

Read Kirk Goldsberry’s excellent report on the growing role of mathematics, statistics, and probability theory in the NBA here.

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What’s the probability that Russia will annex additional Ukrainian territory?

We think it is high, very high. After all, Russia has already annexed the whole of the Crimean peninsula without a real fight. Why won’t she annex other pro-Russian regions too, especially the eastern oblasts of Ukraine? Like Adolf Hitler after the 1938 Munich Conference (remember “peace in our time”?), Russian president Vladimir Putin now knows he can treat his neighbors with utter impunity, for Ukraine’s fair-weather and feckle allies are not willing to back up their empty rhetoric in defense of Ukraine’s territorial integrity with any military force (not even with the threat of force). In sum, why haven’t we learned the lessons of history? (By the way, isn’t it time for our friend Edward Snowden to man up and speak out against Russia’s aggression? Or is Mr Snowden, in effect, a hostage of President Putin?)

Hat tip to Manuel Alvarez-Rivera for this excellent political map of the electoral results of Ukraine’s 2007 parliamentary election.
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Do infants have preferences or utility functions?

This seemingly intractable question is easy enough to answer if you are an academic economist. All you need do is simply assume your answer is yes. But is this any way to search for truth? Doesn’t the economic approach fail the falsification test?

Adys-March13-2014

Image courtesy of baby Adys Ann.

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Why isn’t the Crimean peninsula worth defending?

(The Washington Post)

She is certainly worth stealing and taking by force, which is what the Russian Federation appears to be doing as we write up this pithy blog post …

If you were an advisor to Oleksandr Turchynov, the new (and unelected) prime minister of Ukraine, what advice would you give him? Would you counsel him to stand up and go to war over the Crimea or to sit down and negotiate with the Russians? If you favor using military force in defense of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, what is the probability that Ukraine’s armed forces (or NATO’s, for that matter) would be defeated in a direct confrontation with Russian forces? Does this probability inform the advice you would give?  Now, imagine you are a close advisor to Russian president Vladimir Putin. Same questions. Also, do these sanctions really scare you?

Hat tip: Adam Taylor of The Washington Post.  Note: this post was revised and expanded on the evening of 22 March 2014. For additional game theoretic analyses of the Crimean conflict, see this post by Tyler Cowen (Master of the Internet): Crimea through a game theory lens.

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“Something New”

That is the title of this new song in this creative video by Tom Fletcher …

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A quick critique of Nate Silver’s new website

The new FiveThirtyEight website, which launched last Monday (17 March 2014), purports to offer data journalism in a wide variety of fields, not just politics (the original focus of the original FiveThirtyEight website), but also economics, science, sports, and (our favorite) “life”.

Although we really like Nate Silver’s Bayesian approach to politics, why is there such a single-minded emphasis on so-called empirical and statistical data in the new version of FiveThirtyEight? After all, as the old and wise saying in academia goes, if you torture your data long enough, they will confess to anything.

More importantly, what happened to the Nate Silver of old, the Nate Silver of Bayesian reasoning? In our view, we don’t need another website with lots of “objective” or data-driven bells and whistles. What we really need is just a plain and simple website that applies Bayesian and probabilistic methods to various events of the world …

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