Shadow prediction markets?

In our previous post (see Fate of Flight 370 … below), we quixotically called for the creation of a single-event prediction market in order to (1) bypass all the rampant speculation regarding the ill-fated Malaysia Airlines flight, which has been missing since 8 March 2014, and (2) determine more rigorously the truth values (i.e. probabilities) of the various conjectures and conspiracy theories surrounding this perplexing mystery. In the absence of an actual prediction market, however, would it be possible to recreate a “virtual” or “shadow” market, one based on, say, the number of tweets, Facebook posts, or Reddit entries in support of a given theory or conjecture? Although this alternative would be crude and would require some automated method for aggregating and sorting through an enormous statistical population consisting of millions of data points, what other rigorous options are there?

About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a business law professor at the University of Central Florida.
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1 Response to Shadow prediction markets?

  1. JMI says:

    Really interesting Enrique, thanks​!​

    I think that you would be really interested in some of the most cutting-edge research that I have come across explaining crowds, open innovation, prediction markets.

    http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1919614

    And you may also enjoy this blog about the same too:
    https://thecrowdsociety.jux.com/

    Powerful stuff, no?

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