Presidential Meta-Poll (updated)

1. Will the results of this year’s presidential election confirm or disprove the median voter theorem? (See the helpful video below by Mandi Broderson for several simple illustrations of the median voter model.)

2. Further questions:

(a) How do we determine who the “median voter” is in the real world, and along which policy dimension do we measure his or her political preferences?

(b) How does the act of not voting (i.e. “none of the above”) relate to the median voter model? Specifically, do median voters abstain more frequently than voters closer to the extremes?

(c) Are presidential politics to complex to be amenable to formal mathematical models?

About F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When I’m not blogging, I am a law professor at the College of Business of the University of Central Florida.
This entry was posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, Mathematics, Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Presidential Meta-Poll (updated)

  1. Craig says:

    * Perhaps Question 2a can be rephrased as “In Hotelling’s model, how do we know where the center of the beach is?”
    * And Question 2b, “Does the lack of interest by some beach-goers in the ice cream flavors being offered affect the placement of ice-cream stands on the beach?”

  2. Abogada Guerra says:

    Great explanatory video for those of us who did not know about this theorem.

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