Actuarial table of Trump’s justices

Last year, Donald Trump released a shortlist of conservative jurists he said he would consider as possible U.S. Supreme Court replacements for the late great Justice Antonin Scalia. Recently, our friend, colleague, and fellow blogger Josh Blackman (of seven-screen fame) compiled the somewhat morbid table below calculating the probabilistic life expectancies of the persons on President-Elect Trump’s roster of potential justices. Professor Blackman cautions that “these are utterly uninformed actuarial estimates, which do not account for factors like personal characteristics and family health history.” Instead, these estimates are based solely on each judge’s current age. (You can read Prof. Blackman’s original actuarial post here.)

Credit: Josh Blackman

This entry was posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Law, Politics, Probability. Bookmark the permalink.

3 Responses to Actuarial table of Trump’s justices

  1. crea8ive53 says:

    And where is Merrick Garland on this list? Don’t get me started.

  2. Pingback: Justice Gorsuch? | prior probability

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