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Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol
Pop Quiz
There are reports that Major League Baseball will announce some player suspensions this Monday, 5 August. What is the probability that star player Alex Rodriguez will be suspended? (a) No penalty (b) Small suspension (e.g., until the end of the … Continue reading
How fragile is the “rule of law”?
This is not a mere academic or philosophical quibble. Here, for example, are various reports describing recent developments affecting the “rule of law” in Egypt, Israel, Italy, USA, and Zimbabwe. This parade of horribles is not meant to be a representative sample, but it does … Continue reading
Markets & Morality
This report in yesterday’s Times, which describes a thriving black market in China for phony receipts, begins thus: “To begin to comprehend China’s vast underground economy, one need only visit this city’s major transportation depots and watch as peddlers openly … Continue reading
“You are not so smart”
prior probability is sure you have heard of the famous placebo effect in medicine, but have you ever heard of “placebo buttons”??? Thanks (once again) to the amazing Tyler Cowen, I found this fascinating exposé of placebo buttons on David Craney’s … Continue reading
A contract is a bet …
Charles Fried, a law professor at Harvard, famously argued that a contract is a promise. We at prior probability, however, say that a contract is more like a bet. Consider the relation between sports contracts in baseball and hitting success. … Continue reading
Is legal positivism finally dead?
Legal positivism is an influential descriptive theory of law; its main claim, in brief, is that law and morality are separate. Along comes David Gray Carlson, a law professor at Yeshiva University, who recently published this thought-provoking paper on “Legal Positivism and Russell’s … Continue reading
Will Puerto Rico become the 51st State?
Yesterday, the Committee on Energy & Natural Resources of the U.S. Senate held yet another committee meeting to hear testimony on the political status of Puerto Rico. (I say “yet another committee meeting” because Puerto Rico has been a de facto and … Continue reading
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Tagged Commonwealth, Condorcet's Paradox, Independence, Puerto Rico, Statehood
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When will the U.S. release its remaining political prisoners?
Consider the case of Oscar Lopez Rivera, a Puerto Rican Nationalist who was convicted and sentenced to 70 years in prison for “seditious conspiracy” and has already served more than 32 years of his unjust sentence (more time than Nelson Mandela spent … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged conditional clemency, Oscar Lopez Rivera, political prisoners, seditious conspiracy
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Edward Snowden, state secrets, and double standards
Edward Snowden has been charged by the U.S. Government with stealing and disclosing classified information. But prior probability would ask, didn’t our Government itself unlawfully “steal” the data that Mr Snowden eventually disclosed? Cartoon courtesy of http://lolzparade.com/politics/edward-snowden-timeline?page=5
Is Facebook the next tech bubble?
Some say yes, but many others say no (*). (*) i.e., presumably those investors or speculators who have bought Facebook stock since its IPO last year. Graphic courtesy of http://ehow-to-do.com/how-ponzi-schemes-work
