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Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol
Is Bitcoin a scam?
Bitcoin is an open-source, peer-to-peer, electronic currency. In brief, the Bitcoin concept was introduced in 2008 in a paper by “Satoshi Nakamoto,” a mysterious person (or possibly a group of persons) whose true identity is still unknown. Furthermore, according to this … Continue reading
What is the probability that a large asteroid will collide with Earth?
According to Wikipedia, asteroids with a 1 km diameter strike Earth every 500,000 years on average. Moreover, “Large collisions–with 5 km (3 mi) objects–happen approximately once every twenty million years. The last known impact of an object of 10 km (6 mi) or more in diameter was … Continue reading
The strategy of escalator conflicts
prior probability asks, should you walk or stand when your are going up (or down) an escalator? The solution to this problem is apparently non-trivial. Here, for example, is one recent BBC report on this question. Here is another take on this question, and here is … Continue reading
Another reason why taxis are so overpriced …
… because airports like SFO are criminalizing rideshare apps like Lyft, Sidecar and Uber. The title of this report, for example, says it all: “SFO Officials Make Citizen Arrests Of Internet Rideshare Drivers.” According to this report, San Francisco International Airport officials have been … Continue reading
Robin Hanson asks, “Why do bets look bad?”
prior probability really enjoys Robin Hanson’s blog Overcoming Bias and admire his cutting-edge academic work, especially his project on prediction markets. Recently, Hanson proposed a number of reasons why people might reasonably refuse to place bets to back up their beliefs. Although betting might not be … Continue reading
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Tagged bets, legal failure, Prediction Markets, Robin Hanson
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Do incentives matter?
Of course they do, and that’s why law and legal institutions should avoid perverse incentives … Courtesy of SMBC
Should exams be open book?
Is an exam just a game played between students and professors, a game in which students try to guess what will be on the exam and professors try to outwit their students? If so, what is the optimal study strategy … Continue reading
One World Movement … R.I.P.
Today’s Times reports that Garry Davis, a modern-day Quijote and “dean of the One World movement” who renounced his US citizenship in Paris on 25 May 1948, has died. The moribund One World movement poses two puzzles: why do nation-states … Continue reading
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Tagged Garry Davis, One World Movement, Open Borders, Right to Travel
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Could Watson pass the Turing Test?
Watson, a super-computer built by IBM, is capable of answering questions posed in plain English, an in 2011, Watson competed on the quiz show “Jeopardy!” and won. Assuming the Turing Test is a valid test of artificial intelligence, prior probability asks, what is the … Continue reading
Moral risk
John Danaher, a lecturer at Keele University, has a great blog called Philosophical Disquisitions. He recently wrote a very helpful review of a thought-provoking paper titled “Abortion and Moral Risk” by Dan Moller, a philosophy professor at the University of Maryland. Moller’s fascinating paper and … Continue reading
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Tagged Abortion, Dan Moller, John Danaher, Moral Error, Moral Risk, Philosophy
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