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Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning
Nate Silver gets it; Tyler Cowen does not
Two of our favorite public intellectuals on the Internet (is that an oxymoron?) are Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight) and Tyler Cowen (marginalrevolution). We admire Professor Cowen because he is one of the few economists interested in human nature and culture. He … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs
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#NextBond
It's Bond. Jane Bond. Thanks for all the votes! (And sorry, don't know who made poster but I love it!) #NextBond pic.twitter.com/f8GC4ZuFgL — Gillian Anderson (@GillianA) May 21, 2016
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Culture
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Traffic Jam Paradox
Notice how a single car in the video below creates a chain-reaction leading to a traffic jam. Thus the paradox: given driver behavior, what if building more highways (or expanding existing ones) doesn’t result in reductions of traffic jams? Instead, … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Science, Traffic
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Why did it take us so long to update our Trump priors?
File this post under “confirmation bias” or “reverse halo effect.” Nate Silver is the world-famous “data scientist” whose claim to fame is his ability to predict elections by aggregating polling data. Last summer (July 20, 2015), Silver explained why Donald … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics
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A “CV of failures”
A Princeton psychology professor has posted his CV of failures online (2016) https://t.co/6C6xkzH6ro — Tolu Ogunlesi (@toluogunlesi) June 19, 2019 What would yours look like?
Posted in Academia, Bayesian Reasoning
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May Day
Markets or diktats? Our friend and colleague Ilya Somin recently reiterated his call for repurposing May 1st as “International Victims of Communism Day.” We want to be the first to second his modest proposal …
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, History, Truth
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Anchor effects in philosophy
Gregory Lewis poses the following intriguing question in this thoughtful and original essay/blog post: where are the 13 Platos in modern Attica? Here is an extended excerpt from his essay:
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Philosophy
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The Seven States of America?
What if we just abolished the 50 States or replaced them with seven mega-regions or provinces? (See below for a hypothetical example of what such a proposal might look like on a map.) After all, our northern neighbors in Canada have only 10 … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, History, Maps, Questions Rarely Asked
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What do you want to do when you grow up?
Why do we ask youngsters what do they want to be; instead, we should be asking them what do they want to do when they grow up. But even this suggestion raises a deeper question: why would anyone ever want to “grow … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Culture
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prior probability 