Category Archives: Politics

If the burroughs of NYC were separate States, they would get 18 electoral college votes

Posted on August 9, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Maps, Politics | Leave a comment

City scammers (red light cameras edition)

Posted on July 18, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Posted in Deception, Law, Politics, Web/Tech | 2 Comments

Censorship in Florida (FBI/Orlando police edition)

Posted on July 11, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Hey, what are the FBI and the Orlando police trying to hide from the public in connection with the massacre at Pulse nightclub last month? The police’s slow response to the Pulse shootings (it took the police over three hours … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Deception, Law, Politics | 5 Comments

2016 presidential election forecast

Posted on July 1, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Happy Canada Day! Check out this election forecast from our friends at FiveThirtyEight. Is Nate Silver underestimating Trump’s chances again? Or does Clinton really have this locked up?

Posted in Current Affairs, Politics, Probability | 2 Comments

Is the EU dead now?

Posted on June 24, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Is European Union starting to fall apart? It looks like parochial voters in England and Wales just outvoted their fellow U.K. citizens in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar to leave the EU. What if the Brexit vote had been held … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics | Leave a comment

Brexit odds

Posted on June 23, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

As a public service, let’s translate these betting odds into plain English. If a bettor wagers £10 that a majority of voters in Britain will vote to leave the European Union (“leave”), odds of 6/1 implies that the bettor stands to make … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Economics, Law, Politics, Probability | 3 Comments

Where do we place our bets?

Posted on June 8, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Trump "will no longer comment" on TrumpU case… over/under on how long that lasts= 24 hours? https://t.co/tbpgOVIQpB — Colin Camerer (@CFCamerer) June 7, 2016

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Law, Politics, Racism | 2 Comments

Presidential predictor map

Posted on May 11, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Posted in Maps, Politics | 2 Comments

Why did it take us so long to update our Trump priors?

Posted on May 7, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

File this post under “confirmation bias” or “reverse halo effect.” Nate Silver is the world-famous “data scientist” whose claim to fame is his ability to predict elections by aggregating polling data. Last summer (July 20, 2015), Silver explained why Donald … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics | Leave a comment

Will this presidential promise be kept?

Posted on May 5, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Earlier this year, we wrote up an in-depth series of blog posts discussing the moral bases of “the presidential pledge,” i.e. the solemn pledge all the Republican presidential candidates made to support the eventual nominee of their party. (Here is … Continue reading →