Category Archives: Probability

Adjudication and the Turing Test

Posted on October 30, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Legal trials resemble the Turing Test in many ways. First, let’s restate the original version of the Turing Test and then compare this test to the process of adjudication.

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Games, Law, Philosophy, Probability | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Roman imperial history (pie chart edition)

Posted on October 27, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Why did so many would-be Roman emperors refuse to update their priors? Hat tip to Flibidi via reddit (DataIsBeautiful).

Posted in History, Probability | Tagged | Leave a comment

All proof is probabilistic

Posted on October 24, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

That is the premise of our latest paper “Visualizing Probabilistic Proof.” (We’ve blogged about this paper before, but the latest draft of our paper is available on SSRN here and will be published in an upcoming volume of The Washington University Jurisprudence … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Law, Probability | Tagged | 5 Comments

Chess piece survival rates

Posted on October 22, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Someone on digg posted a variant of this question on Quora: “What are the chances of survival of individual chess pieces on average.” In reply, Oliver Brennan, a chess aficionado and computer programmer, posted this answer: Update (25 Oct. 2014): The excellent … Continue reading →

Posted in Probability, Questions Rarely Asked | Tagged , | 20 Comments