prior probability

Today (14 July) is “Bastille Day” in France!

In his latest New York Times column, Ross Douthat explains the significance of the Seven Years’ War, also known as the French and Indian War. (Hat tip: who else but the amazing Tyler Cowen?) Here is an excerpt from Douthat’s excellent essay (italics in the original):

“Once you recognize that kind of deep historical complexity, you can go in two directions. Along one path lies a kind of cynicism about almost every aspect of the past, where the reader of history is encouraged to basically root for nobody, and the emphasis is always on the self-interest lying underneath every expression of idealism. The French might have modeled what seemed like a kindlier form of colonization, but they were only following their own self-interest as greedy traders and proselytizing Catholic zealots. The New England colonies might have pioneered what seemed like an impressive form of egalitarian democracy, but they achieved their wide distribution of property by ruthlessly crushing the Pequot and the Wampanoag.“

In response to Tyler Cowen’s recent post “Is Haiti governable right now? (at all)” — spoiler alert: his answer is “no” — I want to ask a different and more pragmatic question: What would be the best way to help the people of Haiti given their ongoing constitutional crisis? Without further ado, here is my modest proposal: Instead of another short-term or ad hoc “solution,” such as military or economic aid, why not think big and invite Haiti to become a U.S. State instead of (or in addition to) D.C. or Puerto Rico? The Congress has the exclusive power to admit new States into the union, so Congress could enact a joint resolution inviting Haiti to become the 51st State, subject to approval by the people of Haiti in a “yes” or “no” referendum. This idea may sound crazy, but hear me out: although Haiti is poor, she would have a lot to offer the USA in terms of art, culture, language, and religion (think of Louisiana, but even more awesome!); furthermore, according to the U.S. Census Bureau (2019), there are over one million Haitian Americans living in the United States (see here), almost 10% of Haiti’s population (see here, for example). #HaitianLivesMatter

Is TikTok the best thing since sliced bread? I have recently been featuring a wide variety of Tweets on most Tuesdays, so why not a “Tuesday TikTok” series as well? As it happens, now that TikTok has extended the maximum video length to three minutes (see here, for example; previously, the time limit per video was 60 seconds), I am considering combining my love of music with my love of the law by a creating a fun series of three-minute TikTok videos on various topics for my survey course on business law in the fall. (By way of example, check out “The Iconoclass,” Professor Mary McGillivray’s TikTok videos on art history, and this essay about Professor McGillivray’s unorthodox but entertaining teachings methods.)

Fuck you! You can beat us, call us names, throw us in jail, cut off our Internet, etc., but you will never defeat or destroy our desire for liberty.

¿Quién le dijo que Cuba es de ustedes?/Si mi Cuba es de toda mi gente — from the song “Patria y Vida,” see my previous blog post.

Update (7/13): More details here, via NPR.

This Cuban hip-hop song (see video below), has become one of the unofficial anthems for young people in Cuba. The song’s title “Patria y Vida” offers a powerful symbolic rebuttal to the official Cuban revolution’s slogan of “Patria o Muerte,” made famous by Fidel in the 1960s. Inspired by this song, thousands of ordinary Cubans took to the streets and defied the State Police on Sunday (July 11) to demand freedom. (See this report, for example, via The Havana Times.) Down with Diaz-Canel! Down with the Dictatorship! ¡Viva Cuba Libre!

1. Introduction (00:00)
2. What is Suborbital Spaceflight? (01:30)
3. Virgin Galactic’s “SpaceShipTwo” (05:50)
4. Blue Origin’s “New Shepard” (12:45)
5. Side-by-Side Comparison (20:50)
6. Summary (24:45)

The final is tonight (10 July) at 8pm EST!

I have posted a significantly revised and corrected version of my latest paper “Betting on Conspiracies,” which is available here via SSRN. In summary, the conventional wisdom is that conspiracy theories are dangerous and threaten democracy, and a wide variety of academics and other “experts” have proposed various measures to combat such conspiracy thinking, including direct regulation of social media platforms. What if, however, we allowed people to bet on conspiracy theories instead? I will have more to say about my proposed “Conspiracy Theory Betting Market” in the days ahead …