prior probability

Check out this history of the world-famous slinky toy. (Why hasn’t Hollywood made this remarkable story into a movie yet?) The image below is from the original Slinky patent and is available for purchase here.

Say what you will about the rumors that creepy presidential candidate Joe Biden may choose Michelle Obama as his running mate, this ticket would give Donald J. Trump a real run for his money. (Full disclosure: I am voting Libertarian either way!)

The Mercatus Center at George Mason University has published my latest op-ed explaining why “non-essential” employees and business firms must be paid just compensation–not loans or handouts. The logic of my argument relies on the leading case of Kelo v. City of New London, in which the Supreme Court interpreted the “public use” requirement of the takings clause very broadly. Although Kelo was a controversial decision when it was decided in 2005, it supports my argument that coronavirus lockdowns promote a public purpose and thus trigger the taking clause.

What if John Belushi, Steve Martin, Frances McDormand, and Gene Hackman had played the roles of the advanced Nexus 6 replicants in the classic 1982 Blade Runner movie? That is precisely what filmmaker Leon Chase re-imagines in Blade Runner: The Lost Cut. The only question I have is the one that my fellow Blade-Runner aficionado Jason Kottke poses: “Does this cut go too far? Or not too far enough?” More details about this crazy cinematic montage are available here, via Adi Robertson (The Verge).

The chess grandmasters pictured below are “social distancing” by staying at home and playing their rapid chess matches online (#magnusinvite), but truth be told, they’re all having a tough time not touching their faces! Julia Naftulin explains here why we are always touching our faces.

In the introduction to her book “Thinking in Bets,” Annie Duke describes how she was completing her PhD at Penn when her personal life took a sudden and unexpected turn. Before she knew it, she became a professional poker player, winning millions of dollars in high-stakes competitions around the globe. So far removed from the Ivory Tower, she abandoned her formal studies and was never awarded her doctoral degree. Accordingly, I wish to conclude my review of Duke’s beautiful book by writing a Platonic love letter to her.

Dear Miss Duke, if you are reading this, I have an idea. In lieu of a formal academic dissertation why don’t you ask your publisher to mail a few extra copies of “Thinking in Bets” to the pompous academics at Penn. As the notes on pages 241 to 252 of your book amply attest to, you have more than earned your doctoral degree! More importantly, you are an intellectual inspiration to us all. One of the reasons I love your work so much is that I too have become over the years a hardcore proponent of probabilistic thinking, and your enchanting book not only lays out in plain English the virtues of thinking in probabilistic terms; it also provides a plethora of practical tips and recommendations for thinking probabilistically in one’s own life. Thank you, and keep betting!