Is this art or science? Props to the amazing and multi-talented Chris Whong for this beautiful NYC subway turnstile-data animation.
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NYC subway data visualization
Posted in Art, Economics, Maps, Science, Time
Tagged Data Visualization, New York City
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A 21-word solution for reducing verification bias in the social sciences?
Is social science (especially fields rife with fraud like social psychology) completely worthless? How should we solve the massive problem of verification bias in social science research and in related fields like law, economics, etc.? Via Deborah Mayo, check out this simple 21-word statement that should accompany a Methods section of every social science research paper: “We report how we determined our sample size, all data exclusions (if any), all manipulations, and all measures in the study.” This statement was proposed by Joe Simmons, Leif Nelson, and Uri Simonsohn and appears on page 4 of the journal Dialogue.
Posted in Deception, Economics, Ethics, Law, Science
Tagged Social Science, Verification Bias
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Dear Robert Kraft …
You recently had the audacity to demand an apology from the NFL. You said, and I quote, “If the [NFL] investigation is not able to definitively determine that our organization tampered with the air pressure in the footballs, I would expect and hope that the league would apologize to our entire team and, in particular, coach Belichick and Tom Brady for what they have had to endure this past week.” You got it backwards, dude. It is you — and not the NFL — who owes the fans, especially the New England fans, an apology. Eleven out of 12 footballs is strong probabilistic proof or prima facie evidence of foul play, especially given your team’s history of cheating and rule-bending, and to paraphrase Carl Sagan, the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The issue here is what penalty your team should receive; not whether there should be any penalty. Lastly, just because you are rich and used to getting your way, doesn’t mean you are right. In fact, you are wrong. You and your sorry organization should be ashamed of yourselves.
Sincerely,
Prior Probability
לעולם לא לשכוח
Addendum (Jan. 28): In his blog post “My Visit to Auschwitz,” our friend Tyler Cowen writes, “Each journey that we take has a single place and experience at its emotional center, and no trek with a stop in Auschwitz can have any emotional center other than Auschwitz itself.”
Trans-Asian Railway Map
Click on the map for a larger version. Props to kapom for the pointer.
Off the chart …
Check out Warren Sharp’s statistical analysis of fumbles by NFL teams for all regular season games since the 2010 season. Here is an excerpt from Sharp’s data-detective post: “… the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.” Given these data, it’s hard to believe the New England Patriots are not bending the rules (i.e. cheating) as a matter of course. Update (11/10/19): It turns out that Sharp’s statistical analysis was bullshit.
Posted in Probability, Sports
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Example of the “Peltzman Effect”?
Is this another example?
Spanish language map of the Americas
Props to Homesanto (via reddit) for the pointer.
Posted in Language, Maps
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“Rule 2 The Ball”
Check out the current version of Rule 2 of the official NFL Rulebook (edited by us for brevity):
BALL DIMENSIONS (Sec. 1)
The Ball must be a “Wilson,” hand selected, bearing the signature of the Commissioner of the League, Roger Goodell.
The ball shall be made up of an inflated (12 1/2 to 13 1/2 pounds) urethane bladder enclosed in a pebble grained, leather case (natural tan color) without corrugations of any kind …
The Referee shall be the sole judge as to whether all balls offered for play comply with these specifications. A pump is to be furnished by the home club, and the balls shall remain under the supervision of the Referee until they are delivered to the ball attendant just prior to the start of the game.
BALL SUPPLY (Sec. 2)
prior probability 