prior probability

Thoughts On Northwestern Football Unionization

Posted on April 2, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Should college football players form their own players’ unions? Should they be paid a salary for their services? (If so, how much?) And are student-athletes “employees” as a matter of law? We are reposting the entry below from our friends (and fellow “forty-something professors”) at Cheap Talk because it’s the most insightful post we’ve read thus far on the recent NLRB ruling in the Northwestern football litigation.

Cheap Talk

These are my thoughts and not those of Northwestern University, Northwestern Athletics, the Northwestern football team, nor of the Northwestern football players.

As usual, the emergence of a unionization movement is the symptom of a problem rather than the cause. Also as usual, a union is likely to only make the problem worse.
From a strategic point of view the NCAA has made a huge blunder in not making a few pre-emptive moves that would have removed all of the political momentum this movement might eventually have. Few in the general public are ever going to get behind the idea of paying college athletes. Many however will support the idea of giving college athletes long-term health insurance and guaranteeing scholarships to players who can no longer play due to injury. Eventually the NCAA will concede on at least those two dimensions. Waiting to be forced into it by a union…

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Coase Theorem, Economics, Law, NCAA | 1 Comment

Disney theme parks to announce lower ticket prices

Posted on April 1, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

It’s about time! Here’s a sneak peek at Mickey’s official announcement …

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged April Fool's Day | 1 Comment

Live Piracy Map

Posted on April 1, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this amazing live piracy map generated by the Commercial Crime Services of the International Chamber of Commerce. (Below, for example, is a partial version of the live piracy map from 2011 identifying the location of all piracy incidents during that year.) Given this spatial distribution of piracy, should commercial shipping companies consider joining forces and “paying off” the pirates in exchange for not hijacking their ships? In the alternative, should there be property rights in shipping lanes?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Coase Theorem, piracy, Property Rights | Leave a comment

The tragedy of the outer space commons?

Posted on March 31, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this fascinating paper Earth Orbit Debris: An Economic Model in which the problem of space debris is modeled as a negative externality. What is the optimal number of space satellites, and who decides? Do you believe there are already too many satellites in low-Earth orbit … or too few? Should there be property rights in space orbits?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Economics, Law, Outer Space, Property Rights | Leave a comment

Another example of “reciprocal altruism” in nature?

Posted on March 30, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

The evolutionary biologist Robert Trivers published his influential theory of reciprocal altruism in 1971 to explain the emergence of cooperation in nature. For his part, Richard Dawkins memorably described Trivers’ theory a few years later in a single sentence–“You scratch my back, I’ll ride yours.” By the way, Prof. Trivers was just a wee grad student in biology when he wrote up his original reciprocal altruism paper, though the basic idea of reciprocity goes back to moral philosopher David Hume’s theory of conventions. (Look it up!)

Now, fast forward to 2014. Tiffany Yannetta recently interviewed Robert Samuel, a “professional line sitter” who lives and works in New York City. The complete interview, What it’s like to be a professional line sitter, provides a fascinating glimpse into daily life in the City and is definitely worth reading. Here is one excerpt that caught our attention:

Ms Yannetta: What do you do when you have to go to the bathroom?

Mr Samuel: There’s a loyalty between people standing in line—an unspoken code, so to speak. In my experience of doing this, which is a little over a year and half, it’s never been a problem. No one’s going to say, “You move your feet you lose your space.” I just say, I’m going to the bathroom, and find the nearest Starbucks and offer to get them a coffee or something.

Hat tip (yet again): Master of the Internet, Tyler Cowen

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged New York City, Reciprocal Altruism | Leave a comment

A beautiful five-minute film

Posted on March 28, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

This film speaks for itself …

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Cinema, Film | 2 Comments

Byzantium = Constantinople = Istanbul

Posted on March 28, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Let’s say you want to rename a large metropolitan city with an ancient and long-established name. By way of example, let’s say you want to rename the historic city of “Constantinople” in Asia Minor (modern Turkey) to “Istanbul”. How would you accomplish this? How would you get people to accept the name change and start using the new name?

You pass a law authorizing the post office to “return to sender” all letters, packages, and other correspondence addressed to the old city name, that’s how. According to this Wikipedia entry for Names of Istanbul:

After the creation of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, the various alternative names besides İstanbul became obsolete in the Turkish language. With the Turkish Postal Service Law of March 28, 1930, the Turkish authorities officially requested foreigners to cease referring to the city with their traditional non-Turkish names (such as Constantinople, Tsarigrad, etc.) and to adopt Istanbul as the sole name also in their own languages. Letters or packages sent to “Constantinople” instead of “Istanbul” were no longer delivered by Turkey’s Postal Service, which contributed to the eventual worldwide adoption of the new name.

Bonus Question: What about the previous name change from Byzantium to Constantinople? How did the ancient Romans get people to accept and use their new name for this old city?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Coordination Games, Equilibrium, Law | Leave a comment

Mr. Monopoly has a Facebook page

Posted on March 26, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Note: this post was revised and expanded during the morning of 26 March 2014.

Did you know that Mr Monopoly — the iconic, mustachioed, round little man in a top hat and coattails who also happens to be the official mascot of the Monopoly board game — has his own Facebook page? It’s not your typical lame corporate website, however. Instead, Mr Monopoly is taking suggestions, inviting people to make changes to his classic game. From Mr Monopoly’s website:

We all know there are many ways to play Monopoly … and they’re not always according to the rule book. Here’s your chance to see your favorite house rule become a part of the Monopoly game!

By the way, is Mr Monopoly’s Facebook page a sign of things to come? Do you expect the makers of the other board games to ask their players directly via the world wide web for rule suggestions? Will the US Congress or the UK Parliament try this method one day? But back to the subject at hand, if you could change any of the official rules of Monopoly, or add a new rule to the game, which rule would you change or add, and why?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Games, rules | 2 Comments

Why do criminal defendants get to plead the Fifth?

Posted on March 26, 2014 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Put differently, if you could turn back the clock or re-write the Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution, would you take out the right against self-incrimination? If you care about truth, or about the victims of crime, the answer has to be YES, right? Here is an extended critique of the constitutional right against self-incrimination by Bennet Haselton, who makes a provocative though persuasive case against allowing criminal suspects to plead the Fifth and answers every possible objection you may have …