prior probability

Are player unions good for sports?

Posted on November 9, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

And for other professions? Would the quality of teaching, for example, go up or down if professors were unionized?

In a recent interview with Daniel Benson of The Pacific Standard, the disgraced cycling legend Lance Armstrong talked about the difference between cycling and other professional sports:

Well listen, the biggest difference between cycling, football and tennis is the players’ union, an athletes’ union. We have no voice, no unity. There are guys all over the place. Those sports, major league sports, they’re not letting that happen and the owners wouldn’t allow it to happen. Whereas we’ve [cyclists] just been living in the Wild West. The riders have no rights, ASO [the body that organizes the Tour de France] continues to make millions, the teams don’t own anything. The only thing a team owns is its current contract, and when that’s up you’re fucking done. You might have a couple of buses and a truck. There’s no equity and value. It’s a fucked up business model.

Doesn’t Lance Armstrong have a point?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Doping, Sports, Unions | Leave a comment

What is the optimal number of time zones?

Posted on November 6, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

proposed-time-zones

Allison Schrager, a New York-based economist and writer, explains here how the US could coordinate on just two time zones:

This year, Americans on Eastern Standard Time should set their clocks back one hour (like normal), Americans on Central and Rocky Mountain time do nothing, and Americans on Pacific time should set their clocks forward one hour. After that we won’t change our clocks again – no more daylight saving. This will result in just two time zones for the continental United States. The east and west coasts will only be one hour apart. Anyone who lives on one coast and does business with the other can imagine the uncountable benefits of living in a two-time-zone nation (excluding Alaska and Hawaii).

What do you think of Ms Schrager’s proposal? Does the continental US really need four time zones?

Hat tip: Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Time Zones | 3 Comments

Pop Quiz

Posted on November 5, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

From the math/science section of the G.E.D. high-school equivalency exam:

Assume the probability of rain on each of the next three days is as follows:

Tuesday: 30%

Wednesday: 45%

Thursday: 50%

Based on the above probabilities, what is the probability that it will rain on all three days?

The mathematically-correct answer may surprise you.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged G.E.D. Exam, Math/Science, Pop Quiz, Probability | 8 Comments

Aliens or robots as parents?

Posted on November 4, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

That is the fun title of this report by Richard Perez-Pena in the Sunday Times about a small but growing number of top colleges that have added off-kilter or oddball questions to their admission applications to measure the creativity of their applicants. Here are some examples:

Tell us your favorite joke and try to explain the joke without ruining it. (University of Chicago)

If you could choose to be raised by robots, dinosaurs or aliens, who would you pick? (Brandeis)

Or prior probability‘s favorite:

How did you get caught? (Chicago)

Why don’t any elite law schools try this approach? What quirky question would you add to the law school application process if you could?

Birds and Dinosaurs

Cartoon courtesy of xkcd

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged College Applications, Common Application, Essay Questions | 2 Comments

“Yo la tengo …”

Posted on November 2, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Yesterday morning, Professor John Nowak shared the following short story at the opening plenary session of the Fourth Annual Constitutional Law Colloquium in Chicago:

During the 1962 major league baseball season, New York Mets center fielder Richie Ashburn and Venezuelan shortstop Elio Chacón often collided in the outfield due to a language barrier. Whenever Riche Ashburn went for a pop up in shallow left-center field, he would scream, “I got it! I got it!” only to run into Elio Chacón, who spoke only Spanish. To avoid future collisions, Ashburn learned to yell, “¡Yo la tengo! ¡Yo la tengo!” to call Chacón off shallow fly balls.

In a later game, Ashburn happily saw Chacón backing off. As he positioned himself to catch the ball, bam! This time, he was run over by left fielder Frank Thomas, who understood no Spanish.

Considering that Professor Nowak is a distinguished scholar of US Constitutional Law and that he told this story at a conference on Constitutional Law, what do you think the moral of this story is?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Constitutional Law, John Nowak, Yo La Tengo | 3 Comments

“Redskins” forever?

Posted on October 31, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

(Note: this post was revised and updated on 5 November 2013)

Some (many?) people find the Washington “Redskins” team name and logo to be highly offensive. (What about the Chicago “Blackhawks” (see below) hockey team, by the way?) What, if anything, should be done about this state of affairs? Here are some possible approaches:

1. Impose a complete ban on the use of offensive team names or logos (or some other form of regulation and coercion)

2. Engage in voluntary bargaining, also known as “Coasian bargaining,” in which the NFL or some other group offers to “buy out” the rights to the Redskins trademark from Dan Snyder, the hapless owner of the Washington Redskins

3. Do nothing

Which approach do you prefer? Can you think of any other possible solutions?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Chicago Blackhawks, Coase Theorem, Coercion, Redskins, Washington Redskins | Leave a comment

How likely is it that your boyfriend/girlfriend and you will break up?

Posted on October 30, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Jon Kleinberg, a researcher at Cornell University, and Lars Backstrom, an engineer at Facebook, recently posted this fascinating paper, “Romantic Partnerships and the Dispersion of Social Ties: A Network Analysis of Relationship Status on Facebook,” on the open-access science website arxiv.org. The researchers analyzed a large dataset of over 1.3 million Facebook users listed as being “in a relationship” and then used the concept of dispersion to measure the probability that any given couple might break up.

In summary, couples with high dispersion have mutual friends who are not well connected, while couples with low dispersion have mutual friends who are well connected. The researchers found that the more well connected their mutual friends were, the more likely they were to break up. That is, if you and your partner share the same social circle on Facebook (low dispersion), each partner is less likely to have his or her own life and the relationship is thus more likely to implode.

What do you think?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Dispersion, Facebook, Network Analysis, Relationships | 2 Comments

Should the third year of law school be optional?

Posted on October 28, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Why does it take three years to get a law degree? Why don’t law schools do their students a favor by dropping the third year altogether, or at least making it entirely optional?

Bonus link: Teach blogging in law school?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Law School | 4 Comments

How long did the gunfight at the O.K. Corral last?

Posted on October 26, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

And how many rounds were fired?

According to Wikipedia, about 30 rounds were fired in 30 seconds during the famous gun battle at the O.K. Corral. Here is more:

Despite its name, the gunfight actually occurred in a narrow lot six doors west of the rear entrance to the O.K. Corral on Fremont Street, and also in the street. The two opposing parties were initially only about 6 feet (1.8 m) apart. About thirty shots were fired in thirty seconds.