“Step away from that [smart] phone!”

That is the title of this interesting report in the Sunday Times about the various strategies some people use to disconnect from their smart phones and maintain a modicum of sanity. Here is an excerpt:

Whenever Michael Carl, the fashion market director at Vanity Fair, goes out to dinner with friends, he plays something called the “phone stack” game: Everyone places their phones in the middle of the table; whoever looks at their device before the check arrives picks up the tab.

Brandon Holley, the former editor of Lucky magazine, had trouble ditching her iPhone when she got home from work. So about six months ago, she began tossing her phone into a vintage milk tin the moment she walked in. It remains there until after dinner.

And Marc Jacobs, the fashion designer, didn’t want to sleep next to a beeping gizmo. So he banned digital devices from his bedroom, a house rule he shared with audiences during a recent screening of “Disconnect,” a film that dramatizes how technology has alienated people from one other.

As smartphones continue to burrow their way into our lives, and wearable devices like Google Glass threaten to erode our personal space even further, overtaxed users are carving out their own device-free zones with ad hoc tricks and life hacks.

So, what strategies or tricks do you use (if any) to disconnect from your smart phones or from the World Wide Web generally?

prior probability has taken a more drastic step: we don’t even own a smart phone … we still use a cheap $20 Nokia model, though we are still trying to figure out how to disable the text and voice mail features!

See also: http://statigr.am/tag/phonestack

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David Zetland asks, “What do I lose with the shutdown?”

Not to worry, however, since the so-called “government shutdown” is not a real shutdown: it doesn’t apply to “essential” services, like domestic surveillance and the drug war …

Hat tip to aguanomics

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“Buy or bite?”

That is the title of my contribution to the upcoming book Economics of the Undead: Blood, Brains, and Benjamins, edited by Glen Whitman and James P. Dow. If you are into vampires, then read my essay, the latest draft of which you can find here. My chapter is short, and if you read my work and provide me with your thoughts or feedback (“destructive criticisms” are especially welcome), prior probability will be sure to acknowledge you in the book.

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Why did Coach Schiano bench Josh Freeman?

To save his own job as head coach, that’s why. For those of you who are Bucs fans, do you agree with prior probability that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost their first two games this season, not because of their quarterback, but because of bad coaching decisions made by Schiano late in both games? Also, consider the following excerpt from Bill Barnwell’s insightful essay in Grantland:

By replacing Freeman now, Schiano basically buys himself time to get through the bye with the implied argument of “You can’t fire me until we see whether the rookie can solve our problems at quarterback!” It’s not scapegoating Freeman, since he hasn’t played well and probably deserves to be benched, but the timing is pretty curious, especially considering Schiano was calling Freeman his starter several days ago.

In addition, from prior probability‘s perspective, this conflict between the head coach and the quarterback is puzzling and important because, in theory, since both actors share the same goal (they want their team to win games and reach the playoffs), they should be able to cooperate with each other to achieve this common goal. But in reality, we observe a deep conflict of interest between both men (similar to the conflict that developed between Tim Tebow and Coach Rex Ryan of the N.Y. Jets last season). This state of affairs thus poses a fascinating and difficult research question: why do we see conflict where we would expect to find cooperation? What do you think?

http://www.chrissniderdesign.com/NFLlogos/buccaneers2.html

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Who’s the douche? Gomez or McCann?

Major League Baseball suspended Carlos Gomez for one game for his role in this altercation. Why wasn’t Brian McCann suspended?

(Hat tip to Floyd “Money” Mayweather for the video link.)

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About 1 in 157 Americans are in prison

According to Google search, China’s population in 2012 was four times larger than the USA’s 2012 populuation: 1.315 billion to 314 million, and yet, according to this damning report by the Pew Center on the States, One in 100: Behind Bars in America 2008, the USA is far less free than the People’s Republic of China in terms of the fraction of each country’s prison population: “At the start of 2008, our country had over 2 million people locked up, followed only by China with 1.5 million persons behind bars. America incarcerates more people now than at any other time in our history; one person out of every 100 [?] is in jail or prison.” [See footnote #1 below.] As an aside, given this hard data, can you blame Edward Snowden for wanting to avoid the USA’s criminal (in)justice system? [See also footnote #2.]

Footnote #1: Given that 2 million goes into 314 million approximately 157 times, the 1 in 100 number cited by the Pew Center is pure hyperbole, but nevertheless Pew’s larger point is well-taken.

Footnote #2: prior probability also wonders whether China has any secret courts, like the FISA court in the USA, and whether the various NSA surveillance programs are more sophisticated and invasive than China’s electronic surveillance methods?

Land of the Free?

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What would you do with $625,000?

This is the amount of cash you would have won if you had received a (no-strings-attached!) “Genius Grant” from the MacArthur Foundation. (Yesterday, the MacArthur Foundation named this year’s Genius Grant winners, including a writer (Donald Antrum), an economist (Colin Camerer), a doctor (Jeffrey Brenner), and a lawyer (Margaret Stock), among many others. There are 24 winners or “MacArthur Fellows” in all this year.)

The annual Genius Grants–or more formally  MacArthur Fellowships–are one of the most prestigious private awards in the world, and according to the MacArthur Foundation’s website, “the fellowship is not a reward for past accomplishment, but rather an investment in a person’s originality, insight, and potential.” The current prize is $625,000 (paid over five years in quarterly installments), and as of 2007, MacArthur Foundation has awarded more than $350 million in Genius Grants to 756 recipients as young as 18 and as old as 82.

Do geniuses need subsidies? Are you a creative genius in your domain? If so, what problem or research question would you work on if you had won a MacArthur Genius Grant? (*)

(*) For our part, prior probability would continue our Quixotic quest for an alternative model of legal adjudication, building on our previous work  on the Turing Test.

Bonus link: see also MacArthur ‘genius grant’ myths debunked

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What is the optimal strategy for finding a parking space?

Presh Talwalkar, who has created one of the best blogs on mathematics and game theory on the web (Mind Your Decisions), recently wrote up this blog post on parking space strategy. It includes this interesting excerpt from the book Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do:

It seems that the people who actively look for the “best” parking place inevitably spend more total time getting to the store than those people who simply grab the first spot they see * * * [Researchers] observed two distinct strategies: “cycling” and “pick a row, closest space.” They compared the results. “What was interesting,” [lead researcher Andrew Velkey found], “was although the individuals cycling were spending more time driving looking for a parking space, on average they were no closer to the door, time-wise or distance-wise, than people using ‘pick a row, closest space.’”

So, what strategy do you use when you are searching for an elusive parking space (on campus, at the mall, downtown, etc.) and why? Do you follow the same strategy each time, or do you use a mixed strategy, “cycling” on some days and “picking a row” on others?

(As an aside, as far as prior probability is concerned, since we like walking, and since we also prefer corner parking spaces to “sandwich” spaces, prior probability actually searches for the furthest parking space possible from the door. This reduces our search time, though it increases our walk time.)

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La sonrisa de Adys Ann … Baby Adys Ann’s smile

La sonrisa de Baby Adys ... Baby Adys's smile

Our beautiful baby daughter was born seven weeks ago on this day. For the past seven weeks prior probability has tried to capture her smile on film, taking thousands of pictures of her night and day to no avail … until today!

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Why does “originalism” refuse to die?

According to Wikipedia, “originalism” is a theory of interpretation that tries to discover the original meaning or original intent of the Constitution. But the main problem with this theory is that the framers of the Constitution themselves did not agree on its meaning. Consider, for example, the specific question whether the Congress has the power to charter a national bank, a constitutional question that was debated at the founding of our republic. James Madison thought that Congress did not have the power to charter a national bank, since the powers of Congress are specifically enumerated, while Alexander Hamilton thought otherwise, since a national bank was a means to several of Congress’s enumerated ends, such as the power to collect taxes and borrow money. Although both statesmen attended the secret Philadelphia Convention and co-wrote the famous Federalist Papers, along with John Jay, they were not able to agree about the scope of Congress’s powers, which is one of the most important questions in constitutional law. So, if originalism is of no help on this question, why does originalism (like Santa Clause and other fables) refuse to die?

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