Check out his popular Twitter account and decide for yourself …
libcom.org
(Andrew Brown of the Guardian has some thoughts on this matter too.)
Creative Commons
Blogs I Follow
The logic of the world wide web
Can anyone explain the economic logic of the world wide web to prior probability? (If you are an economist, just leave and close the door behind you.) Traditional business firms provide private goods and services at some positive (non-negative) price. What happens, however, when the price falls to zero? Economic theory predicts zero supply. Yet the world wide web follows a different logic. For example, check out this cool graphic from designtaxi. It’s amazing how some of the best websites on the internet, like Youtube, WordPress, and Google Search, are free.
Hat tip: David Zetland
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Free, Google Search, Price, Private Goods, Wordpress, World Wide Web, Youtube, Zero Price
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Is “global warming” bullshit?
The National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released this State of the Climate: Extreme Events chart. Click on the dot on the bottom of the chart and you will find this amazing heading:
<<Record High Antarctic Sea Ice>>
WTF? The NOAA’s chart further states that “Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent grew to 7.51 million square miles (19.44 million square kilometers) at the winter maximum on September 26, 2012, setting a new record high. The September 2012 monthly average was also a record high, at 19.39 million square kilometers (7.49 million square miles) slightly higher than the previous record in 2006.” Double WTF? So are the climate skeptics right? Is “global warming” a scientific scam?
Hat tip to P. Gosselin.
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Antarctic Sea Ice, Antarctica, Climate Change, Extreme Events, Global Warming, NOAA
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Afghan opium
One oft-forgotten aspect of the war in Afghanistan are the (futile?) efforts of NATO and the US Armed Forces to eradicate the supply of opium. What if, instead of trying to eradicate the supply of Afghan opium through military force or coercion, the US and her Allies were to take a market or property-rights approach by buying out the entire supply of opium? In this interesting paper, David Zetland, an economist living in Amsterdam, considers what would happen to the market price of heroin if the US agreed to buy out the opium harvest from Afghan suppliers.
Oprah’s handbag
Three Questions:
#1 Is it ethical to manufacture, sell, or buy a product made from crocodiles?
#2 Regardless of your answer to #1 above, was Oprah Winfrey the victim of racism or classism (or both) in the Swiss city of Zurich, when a shop girl refused to show Oprah an expensive ($38,000 USD) crocodile handbag?
(Here is Oprah’s side of the story: “I was in Zurich the other day, in a store whose name I will not mention. *** I go into a store and I say to the woman, ‘Excuse me, may I see the bag right above your head?’ and she says to me, ‘No. It’s too expensive.'” And here is the shop girl’s side of the story.)
#3 Does your response to question #1 have any impact on your answer to question #2?
Bayesian baseball
If you are a baseball fan, you might know the batting average or on-base percentage (OBP) of your favorite player, such as Yasiel Puig or Dustin Pedroia (two of prior probability‘s favorite players). But do you know your favorite player’s “Run Production Average” or RPA? According to Mike Gimbel, one of the pioneers in the field of sabermetrics (or the use of statistical methods to analyze player performance in baseball games), “The RPA is a comprehensive rating that takes into account offensive ability, defensive ability, pitching, the position played, the stadium where the performance took place, the age of the player and even his minor league performance.” More precisely, the RPA is a combined statistic that assigns the following weights to each of the following events:
| Single | = | .29 runs |
| Double | = | .41 runs |
| Triple | = | .70 runs |
| Home Run | = | 1.44 runs |
| Walk, Hit-By-Pitch (HBP) & Reached-on-an-error | = | .165 runs |
| Extra Base taken as a runner | = | .075 runs |
| Stolen Base, Wild Pitch & Balk | = | .100 runs |
| Caught Stealing & Picked-off | = | -.165 runs |
| Ground into Double Play | = | -.165 runs |
For more on the life and times of Mike Gimbel, check out this recent article by Hua Hsu on Grantland
“Armed Cowards”
Police in Miami Beach used a taser to kill Israel Hernandez-Llach, a promising 18-year old artist. According to this report in the Times, the reaction of one citizen, Miguel Gonell, a 67-year-old Cuban exile, really says it all. He called the police “armed cowards” and compared their actions to the worst of Fidel’s tactics. “How can they kill a boy for being an artist?” Mr. Gonell asked. “This is worse than Cuba!”
In honor of Israel’s life and art, prior probability is reposting this reproduction of one of his paintings:
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Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Armed Cowards, Art, Israel Hernandez-Llach, Miami Beach, Police Repression, Taser
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Intro to Mathematical Philosophy
Calling all geeks: Professors Hannes Leitgeb and Stephan Hartmann, who teach at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, are now offering an eight-week course on “Introduction to Mathematical Philosophy” at Coursera. I have just completed the first two sets of lectures (which were on the concepts of infinity and truth) and highly recommend this course. (No, prior probability does not receive a fee or commission for recommending this course, but we wish we did!)
Geek out!
“The right of the people to encrypt data …”
While the President was once again using his best rhetorical skills to assure the public that the NSA is not really abusing its top-secret surveillance powers, Alex Tabarrok, an economist at George Mason University and co-blogger at Marginal Revolution, was asking: “Is the Fourth Amendment now illegal?”
Tabarrok also proposes adding the following language to the Fourth Amendment:
“Congress shall pass no law abridging the right of the people to encrypt their documents and effects.”
While we are at it, prior probability would amend Article III of the Constitution thus:
“Congress shall not have the power to create secret courts.”
What part of the Constitution would you amend?
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Alex Tabarrok, Article III, Fourth Amendment, Secret Courts
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Pop Quiz #3
What fraction of players in Major League Baseball are cheating? (*)
(a) Less than 10%
(b) Between 10-50%
(c) Between 50-90%
(e) More than 90%
(*) By “cheating” we mean the use of banned substances or performance-enhancing drugs.
Postscript: This column by Tom Jones, a sports columnist for the Tampa Bay Times, really nails it.
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Cheating, Major League Baseball, Performance Enhancing Drugs
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