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Tag Archives: priors
Note: this is the fifth and final installment of our review of the paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach. We now come to the “main event”: the problem of priors. That is, where are you … Continue reading
Have you heard the ancient proverb: The hedgehog knows one big thing; the fox, many little things …? Nate Silver sure has. Mr Silver is relaunching his FiveThirtyEight blog this Monday, 17 March 2014, with this old proverb in mind. For … Continue reading
At its core, Bayes’ theorem is not just a mathematical equation, a formal method for making predictions; it is also a probabilistic and dynamic way of looking at the world. The essence of this approach is the process of Bayesian … Continue reading
Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, professors at NYU, wrote up this critique of Nate Silver’s best-selling book The Signal and the Noise for The New Yorker magazine several months ago. prior probability finally got around to reading their critique and is … Continue reading