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Tag Archives: Bayesian reasoning
Is LeBron a Bayesian?
Polymath Tyler Cowen speculates thus: In Cleveland [LeBron] is not actually expected to win, at least not right away. They can play the young guys a lot and rest his legs and extend his career, while developing the quality of the … Continue reading
!Viva Bayes!
Hey, why are there so many Bayesians in Mexico this week? Maybe it’s because the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) is holding an international conference on Bayesian methods (see logo below) at the Cancun Conference Center in beautiful Cancun, Mexico. [*] By the way, … Continue reading
“Bayesian reasoning” postscript
Note: We recently concluded a five-part review of the main points in Howson & Urbach’s important paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” (see our various Bayesian blog posts from 25-28 June). We now wish to present our own thoughts in this postscript. Spoiler … Continue reading
The problem of priors
Note: this is the fifth and final installment of our review of the paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach. We now come to the “main event”: the problem of priors. That is, where are you … Continue reading
Lies, damned lies, and … statistics
Note: this is the fourth part of our review of the paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach. (The fifth and final installment of our review shall appear on 28 June.) Let us return to Howson and Urbach’s Bayesian … Continue reading
Beliefs are like gambles …
Note: this is the third installment of our review of the paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach. Thus far, we have seen how Howson and Urbach briefly consider the relation between probability and truth (see previous … Continue reading
Truth and probability
Note: this is the second installment of our review of the paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach. Following their short introduction on gambling odds (see post below for a summary), Howson and Urbach present the … Continue reading
“Bayesian reasoning in science”
That is the title of this commentary by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach published in the journal Nature on 4 April 1991. (Howson and Urbach also published a book with the title “Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach”; see the image of … Continue reading
What critics of Nate Silver get wrong
Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, professors at NYU, wrote up this critique of Nate Silver’s best-selling book The Signal and the Noise for The New Yorker magazine several months ago. prior probability finally got around to reading their critique and is … Continue reading
prior probability 