“Armed Cowards”

Police in Miami Beach used a taser to kill Israel Hernandez-Llach, a promising 18-year old artist. According to this report in the Times, the reaction of one citizen, Miguel Gonell, a 67-year-old Cuban exile, really says it all. He called the police “armed cowards” and compared their actions to the worst of Fidel’s tactics. “How can they kill a boy for being an artist?” Mr. Gonell asked. “This is worse than Cuba!”

In honor of Israel’s life and art, prior probability is reposting this reproduction of one of his paintings:

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Intro to Mathematical Philosophy

Calling all geeks: Professors Hannes Leitgeb and Stephan Hartmann, who teach at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, are now offering an eight-week course on “Introduction to Mathematical Philosophy” at Coursera. I have just completed the first two sets of lectures (which were on the concepts of infinity and truth) and highly recommend this course. (No, prior probability does not receive a fee or commission for recommending this course, but we wish we did!)

Geek out!

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

“The right of the people to encrypt data …”

While the President was once again using his best rhetorical skills to assure the public that the NSA is not really abusing its top-secret surveillance powers, Alex Tabarrok, an economist at George Mason University and co-blogger at Marginal Revolution, was asking: “Is the Fourth Amendment now illegal?”

Tabarrok also proposes adding the following language to the Fourth Amendment:

“Congress shall pass no law abridging the right of the people to encrypt their documents and effects.”

While we are at it, prior probability would amend Article III of the Constitution thus:

“Congress shall not have the power to create secret courts.”

What part of the Constitution would you amend?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Pop Quiz #3

What fraction of players in Major League Baseball are cheating? (*)

(a)  Less than 10%

(b)  Between 10-50%

(c)  Between 50-90%

(e)  More than 90%

(*) By “cheating” we mean the use of banned substances or performance-enhancing drugs.

Postscript: This column by Tom Jones, a sports columnist for the Tampa Bay Times, really nails it.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Does anyone smell a rat?

Some communities have “neighborhood watches” to deter thieves and other criminals. So why don’t we organize a “Constitution Watch” to discourage violations of the Constitution?

Some people, for example, think Edward Snowden is a criminal or public enemy for disclosing the extent of “warrantless wiretapping” at the NSA. But if this report is true, then why haven’t any government officials been charged with violating the Constitution? Oh, that’s right, the Department of Justice and the NSA are both executive branch agencies … and career criminals don’t like to rat out other career criminals!

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Pop Quiz #2

What effect, on average, do traffic signal cameras have on safety?

(a) Cameras have no effect on the rate of accidents.

(b) Cameras decrease the rate of accidents.

(c) Cameras increase the rate of accidents.

The answer is here.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Suckers & con artists … a symbiosis

Check out this report in yesterday’s Economist about Andrew Gradon, a con man who swindles unsuspecting suckers Good Samaritans out of their money at various European airports. Of course, there would be fewer con artists if there were fewer suckers Good Samaritans!

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Civil theft

Check out this report in this week’s The New Yorker by Sarah Stillman on the use and abuse of civil forfeiture in the US. Here is one excerpt: “In general, you needn’t be found guilty to have your assets claimed by law enforcement; in some states, suspicion on a par with ‘probable cause’ is sufficient. Nor must you be charged with a crime, or even be accused of one. Unlike criminal forfeiture, which requires that a person be convicted of an offense before his or her property is confiscated, civil forfeiture amounts to a lawsuit filed directly against a possession, regardless of its owner’s guilt or innocence.”

So what is the difference between theft and civil forfeiture? 

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

What would Wittgenstein say?

Philosopher Colin McGinn may not be the most popular professor in the academy these days,  but his recent thoughts on “The Science of Philosophy” (which might just qualify as one of the shortest academic papers ever) have left me pondering whether science is just a branch of philosophy. Here is an excerpt (footnotes omitted):

“What is the nature of philosophy? Two views have been influential. One view is that philosophy is “continuous with science”–a kind of proto science or a commentary on the sciences or a synthesis of them. According to this view, philosophy is an empirical discipline, though more removed from the data than typical science: it is not different in kind from physics, chemistry and biology. Thus the subject of philosophy comes under the general heading of “science” because of its methodological similarity to the regular sciences. * * * The second view is that philosophy is quite unlike empirical science, both in methodology and subject matter: it is an a priori discipline, removed from observation and experiment. According to this view, philosophy is to be contrasted with empirical science, and is often regarded as properly one of the “humanities”. * * * Thus philosophy is held not to be a branch of science, having its own distinctive nature as a field of enquiry.”

In other words, is philosophy a science, or science a way of doing philosophy? Which view provides a better description of what philosophers do? What would Wittgenstein say?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

What is the fastest way to board an airplane?

You might think it’s front to back … but that is wrong. The best method is window seats first, then middle, then aisle–the “inside-out” method.  Jason Steffen’s paper “Optimal boarding method for airline passengers” applies the experimental method to this problem and explains why the inside-out method is the fastest way to board a plane. Steffan is a physicist (i.e., a real scientist), so why don’t more of his “social science” colleagues try to solve practical problems like this one? Is the real world beneath them?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 1 Comment