prior probability

PhD lifestyle guilt

Posted on August 6, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

prior probability loved this post on PhD lifestyle guilt … yes, we know the feeling … we often feel “professor lifestyle guilt” (except when we are grading exams and papers) because we love our work … As Oliver Wendell Holmes once said, it’s the “command of ideas” that is most rewarding in life

The Thesis Whisperer

This post was written by Paula Hanaszwho is currently writing a thesis on the geopolitics of water security in South Asia at The ANU. She is enrolled at the Australia National University but currently spends more time on her couch than in her office or the library.

I’m going to take a moment out of my busy study schedule to interrupt yours by telling you about my experiences with PhD Lifestyle Guilt. This is, as the name might suggest, the perennial guilt about having the sort of life where ‘work’ involves sitting around on the couch reading interesting stuff, and getting grants to go to international conferences.

Of course the PhD Lifestyle is not like that for everybody. I’m fortunate enough that, in Australia at least, writing a thesis in the humanities means no coursework. And no coursework means very little reason to be on campus. Ever…

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The tyranny of the TSA

Posted on August 6, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Is the Constitution just a worthless piece of paper? After all, Americans have no real legal rights at airports, since airport security checkpoints are somehow exempt from the probable cause requirement of the Constitution … and yet nobody cares.

Now, the TSA is expanding its tyrannical tentacles beyond airports. As this incredible report in the Times states, “With little fanfare, the agency best known for airport screenings has vastly expanded its reach to sporting events, music festivals, rodeos, highway weigh stations and train terminals.”

Americans may be losing their freedoms, but at least they feel safe!

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Constitution, TSA | 1 Comment

Happy Jamaica Independence Day!

Posted on August 6, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Jamaica is one of prior probability‘s favorite countries in the world (aside: p.p.’s wife is Jamaican and we spent our last summer in St Ann Parish and plan to return next summer), and today, 6 August, the Island celebrates her independence from Britain today, 6 August. But unfortunately for the people of Jamaica, their government is currently burdened with a huge external debt (i.e., monies owed to creditors outside the country). According to this report in The Guardian, for example, “Jamaica has repaid more money ($19.8bn) than it has been lent ($18.5bn), yet the government still ‘owes’ $7.8bn, as a result of huge interest payments. Government foreign debt payments ($1.2bn) are double the amount spent on education and health combined ($600m).”

Can a country be truly independent when its external debt is so large relative to that country’s wealth? Can a sovereign country declare bankruptcy? In the alternative, why won’t the international community agree to forgive the accrued interest on Jamaica’s external debts?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged External Debt, Independence, Jamaica | 1 Comment

The perils of an electronic police state

Posted on August 5, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

When did the USA become an electronic police state? Check out this recent report in the Times titled “Other Agencies Clamor for Data NSA Compiles.” Here is just one except from this fascinating report:

“Typically, the agencies request that the N.S.A. target individuals or groups for surveillance, search its databases for information about them, or share raw intelligence, rather than edited summaries, with them. If those under scrutiny are Americans, approval from the secret Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court is required.”

This report also raises a larger question: who watches the watchers? Are there any meaningful checks and balances over this emerging surveillance state? Another point I would add is this: if Americans want to trade off liberty & privacy for security, that is certainly their choice to make, but they should make that choice openly and stop pretending to be “the land of the free,” which the USA is not.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged NSA, Secret Courts, Surveillance, Warrantless Searches | Leave a comment

Information externalities

Posted on August 5, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Information wants to be free … except on Twitter? Lots of people say they are for free speech, except when they are not … Is there a principled or “right” way of drawing the line between free speech and prohibited speech?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged "Information Wants to Be Free", free speech, Twitter | Leave a comment

Why are so many great beers brewed in Belgium?

Posted on August 5, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

According to Wikipedia, there are some 178 breweries in Belgium, a small country about the same size as the State of Maryland … Yet it’s not just the sheer quantity of breweries in such a little country that astounds prior probability but also (from personal experience) the high quality of so many Belgian beers.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Beer, Belgium | 2 Comments

Prior Probability Primer

Posted on August 5, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

This blog is about the concept of “prior probability” and how it applies to life, love, and law. But what is a “prior probability”? Wikipedia offers the following technical definition of this concept: “… a prior probability distribution, often called simply the prior, of an uncertain quantity p … is the probability distribution that would express one’s uncertainty about p … It is meant to attribute uncertainty rather than randomness to the uncertain quantity. The unknown quantity may be a parameter or latent variable.” Here is an easier and simpler definition. Say there is some X which you are uncertain about (such as the total number of blue jelly beans in the jar below). Your prior about X represents your original or initial estimate of X. This idea is the foundation of Bayesian analysis and modern probability theory and has important implications in many different domains … Stay tuned for more.

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Pop Quiz

Posted on August 4, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

There are reports that Major League Baseball will announce some player suspensions this Monday, 5 August. What is the probability that star player Alex Rodriguez will be suspended?

(a) No penalty

(b) Small suspension (e.g., until the end of the season)

(d) Lifetime ban

More importantly, where did you get your prior from and how confident are you in its accuracy?

Bonus Question: If b, c, or d occurs, what is the probability that A-Rod will appeal his suspension and still play for the Yankees this season?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Alex Rodriguez, Major League Baseball | 2 Comments

How fragile is the “rule of law”?

Posted on August 4, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

This is not a mere academic or philosophical quibble. Here, for example, are various reports describing recent developments affecting the “rule of law” in Egypt, Israel, Italy, USA, and Zimbabwe. This parade of horribles is not meant to be a representative sample, but it does illustrate just how difficult it is to keep politics out of law.

Image of “Consensus Civilis” courtesy of http://www.kancelaria.info.kalisz.pl

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged Egypt, Israel, Italy, rule of law, USA, Zimbabwe | Leave a comment

Markets & Morality

Posted on August 4, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

This report in yesterday’s Times, which describes a thriving black market in China for phony receipts, begins thus:

“To begin to comprehend China’s vast underground economy, one need only visit this city’s major transportation depots and watch as peddlers openly hawk fake receipts. * * * Buyers use them to evade taxes and defraud employers. And in a country rife with corruption, they are the grease for schemes to bribe officials and business partners. Making them and using them is illegal in China … But demand is so strong that a surprising amount of deal-making takes place out in public.”

This fascinating report also raises a larger question about the relation between markets and morality. That is, just because people are trading doesn’t mean such trades are “efficient” or good for society. This is why markets need morality (and law) to work properly.