Oprah’s handbag

Posted on August 12, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Three Questions:

#1 Is it ethical to manufacture, sell, or buy a product made from crocodiles?

#2 Regardless of your answer to #1 above, was Oprah Winfrey the victim of racism or classism (or both) in the Swiss city of Zurich, when a shop girl refused to show Oprah an expensive ($38,000 USD) crocodile handbag?

(Here is Oprah’s side of the story: “I was in Zurich the other day, in a store whose name I will not mention. *** I go into a store and I say to the woman, ‘Excuse me, may I see the bag right above your head?’ and she says to me, ‘No. It’s too expensive.'” And here is the shop girl’s side of the story.)

#3 Does your response to question #1 have any impact on your answer to question #2?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Bayesian baseball

Posted on August 11, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

File:Yasiel Puig 2.jpg

If you are a baseball fan, you might know the batting average or on-base percentage (OBP) of your favorite player, such as Yasiel Puig or Dustin Pedroia (two of prior probability‘s favorite players). But do you know your favorite player’s “Run Production Average” or RPA? According to Mike Gimbel, one of the pioneers in the field of sabermetrics (or the use of statistical methods to analyze player performance in baseball games), “The RPA is a comprehensive rating that takes into account offensive ability, defensive ability, pitching, the position played, the stadium where the performance took place, the age of the player and even his minor league performance.” More precisely, the RPA is a combined statistic that assigns the following weights to each of the following events:

Single = .29 runs
Double      = .41 runs
Triple      = .70 runs
Home Run      = 1.44 runs
Walk, Hit-By-Pitch (HBP) & Reached-on-an-error      = .165 runs
Extra Base taken as a runner      = .075 runs
Stolen Base, Wild Pitch & Balk      = .100 runs
Caught Stealing & Picked-off      = -.165 runs
Ground into Double Play      = -.165 runs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For more on the life and times of Mike Gimbel, check out this recent article by Hua Hsu on Grantland

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

“Armed Cowards”

Posted on August 11, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Police in Miami Beach used a taser to kill Israel Hernandez-Llach, a promising 18-year old artist. According to this report in the Times, the reaction of one citizen, Miguel Gonell, a 67-year-old Cuban exile, really says it all. He called the police “armed cowards” and compared their actions to the worst of Fidel’s tactics. “How can they kill a boy for being an artist?” Mr. Gonell asked. “This is worse than Cuba!”

In honor of Israel’s life and art, prior probability is reposting this reproduction of one of his paintings:
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Intro to Mathematical Philosophy

Posted on August 11, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Calling all geeks: Professors Hannes Leitgeb and Stephan Hartmann, who teach at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, are now offering an eight-week course on “Introduction to Mathematical Philosophy” at Coursera. I have just completed the first two sets of lectures (which were on the concepts of infinity and truth) and highly recommend this course. (No, prior probability does not receive a fee or commission for recommending this course, but we wish we did!)

Geek out!

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

“The right of the people to encrypt data …”

Posted on August 10, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

While the President was once again using his best rhetorical skills to assure the public that the NSA is not really abusing its top-secret surveillance powers, Alex Tabarrok, an economist at George Mason University and co-blogger at Marginal Revolution, was asking: “Is the Fourth Amendment now illegal?”

Tabarrok also proposes adding the following language to the Fourth Amendment:

“Congress shall pass no law abridging the right of the people to encrypt their documents and effects.”

While we are at it, prior probability would amend Article III of the Constitution thus:

“Congress shall not have the power to create secret courts.”

What part of the Constitution would you amend?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Pop Quiz #3

Posted on August 9, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

What fraction of players in Major League Baseball are cheating? (*)

(a)  Less than 10%

(b)  Between 10-50%

(c)  Between 50-90%

(e)  More than 90%

(*) By “cheating” we mean the use of banned substances or performance-enhancing drugs.

Postscript: This column by Tom Jones, a sports columnist for the Tampa Bay Times, really nails it.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Does anyone smell a rat?

Posted on August 8, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Some communities have “neighborhood watches” to deter thieves and other criminals. So why don’t we organize a “Constitution Watch” to discourage violations of the Constitution?

Some people, for example, think Edward Snowden is a criminal or public enemy for disclosing the extent of “warrantless wiretapping” at the NSA. But if this report is true, then why haven’t any government officials been charged with violating the Constitution? Oh, that’s right, the Department of Justice and the NSA are both executive branch agencies … and career criminals don’t like to rat out other career criminals!

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Pop Quiz #2

Posted on August 8, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

What effect, on average, do traffic signal cameras have on safety?

(a) Cameras have no effect on the rate of accidents.

(b) Cameras decrease the rate of accidents.

(c) Cameras increase the rate of accidents.

The answer is here.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Suckers & con artists … a symbiosis

Posted on August 8, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this report in yesterday’s Economist about Andrew Gradon, a con man who swindles unsuspecting suckers Good Samaritans out of their money at various European airports. Of course, there would be fewer con artists if there were fewer suckers Good Samaritans!

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Civil theft

Posted on August 8, 2013 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this report in this week’s The New Yorker by Sarah Stillman on the use and abuse of civil forfeiture in the US. Here is one excerpt: “In general, you needn’t be found guilty to have your assets claimed by law enforcement; in some states, suspicion on a par with ‘probable cause’ is sufficient. Nor must you be charged with a crime, or even be accused of one. Unlike criminal forfeiture, which requires that a person be convicted of an offense before his or her property is confiscated, civil forfeiture amounts to a lawsuit filed directly against a possession, regardless of its owner’s guilt or innocence.”

So what is the difference between theft and civil forfeiture? 

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment