prior probability

Yesterday, the Committee on Energy & Natural Resources of the U.S. Senate held yet another committee meeting to hear testimony on the political status of Puerto Rico. (I say “yet another committee meeting” because Puerto Rico has been a de facto and de jure colony of the United States since the Cuban-Spanish-American War of 1898. Is there such a thing as too much due process? Why won’t Congress just vote up or down on whether to admit Puerto Rico as a State, which Congress has the power to do under Article IV of the Constitution?)

FYI, Puerto Rico has been a Commonwealth or non-State territory of the United States since 1952. A dwindling number of Puerto Ricans favor Independence, while the rest of Puerto Rico’s electorate is almost equally divided between Statehood and Commonwealth. If you love this subject as much as I do, you can watch yesterday’s 90-minute theatrical hearing here. Here is my summary of yesterday’s hearings:

In summary, supporters of Statehood and Independence want to take the current Commonwealth option off the ballot during the next political status vote. Supporters of Commonwealth cry foul, arguing that this would be a form of disenfranchisement. Statehood and Independence partisans reply in turn that the current Commonwealth status itself is a form of disenfranchisement, since the Commonwealth is territorial or colonial in nature.

prior probability‘s take is that Puerto Rico status politics is a prime example of Condorcet’s Paradox. We will be blogging more on this fascinating subject in the weeks to come, so in the meantime, tell me what you think … Should Puerto Rico become a State of the Union, remain a territorial Commonwealth, or become an independent Republic like Cuba or Panama?