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Tag Archives: Sports
Let’s get real: teams with losing records should not be in the playoffs
The Atlanta Hawks have a losing record this season (38-44), but they are still in the NBA playoffs because they happen to have the eighth best record in the weak Eastern Conference. This is totally ridiculous and lame, right? Why … Continue reading
Why don’t we abolish timeouts in sports?
After all, there are no timeouts in soccer. In the alternative, why don’t we at least consider reducing the total number of timeouts or capping the number of referee reviews? In short, why do we put up with long, drawn-out games? … Continue reading
Sumner on Cowen on Silver on Aaron
Scott Sumner just wrote up a thoughtful analysis of Tyler Cowen’s reply to Nate Silver’s counter-factual thought-experiment about baseball. But we here at prior probability are not so much interested in the original question of Nate Silver’s post (“If Hank Aaron had never hit a home run, … Continue reading
What % of basketball and football games are fixed?
The fraction or number of such games has to be greater than zero, but how much greater? By way of example, do you detect any suspicious patterns or red flags in this box score of the Huskies’s 63-53 Final Four upset victory over the Gators yesterday … Continue reading
NBA “pass probabilities” (San Antonio Spurs edition)
Read Kirk Goldsberry’s excellent report on the growing role of mathematics, statistics, and probability theory in the NBA here.
Another form of sports betting
Should NFL coaches or Major League Baseball managers be required to pay a fee in order to protest a bad call? They would be if football or baseball were an Olympic sport. Here is an excerpt from this fascinating report in the … Continue reading
Are you a square or a sharp?
Check out this report in the Sunday Times about sports gambling. Here is one tantalizing excerpt: In the world of sports gambling, there are two types of people: squares and sharps. Squares make bets based on hunches, hometown favoritism, emotion. Nearly … Continue reading
What is the probability of going pro?
Check out this interactive website at visual.ly which calculates the odds that any given high school athlete will go on to play sports in college or in a professional sports league. Here is a sample:
A modest (NFL) proposal
Last week, the commissioner of the National Football League, Roger Goodell, proposed an interesting idea–abolishing the extra point after a touchdown. (As an aside, check out Aaron Gordon’s excellent behavioral analysis of this proposal.) But if we’re going to reform the rules … Continue reading
The Bayesian approach to sports
Consider the following image from ESPN Stats & Info (via Twitter): This past Sunday afternoon, the overrated Dallas Cowboys led the venerable and tenacious Green Bay Packers by a score of 26-3 at halftime, yet the Cowboys somehow blew their large … Continue reading
prior probability 