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Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol
What critics of Nate Silver get wrong
Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis, professors at NYU, wrote up this critique of Nate Silver’s best-selling book The Signal and the Noise for The New Yorker magazine several months ago. prior probability finally got around to reading their critique and is … Continue reading
Is economics a science?
Economists Noah Smith (“A few words about math”) and Bryan Caplan (“Economath fails the cost benefit test”) have recently presented powerful and persuasive critiques of the over-use of mathematics in economics, but prior probability thinks they both miss the larger question, … Continue reading
Do poor people prefer cash or in-kind benefits?
What’s the best way to help the poor in developing countries? How about giving them $1000 USD in cash, with no strings attached? If this idea sounds crazy to you, then check out this report in the Sunday Times describing … Continue reading
Pfc. Bradley Manning … political prisoner?
Is Private Bradley Manning, who was just sentenced to 35 years in prison for disclosing military secrets, now the US’s youngest political prisoner? prior probability thinks so. Manning’s pre-trial detention was inhumane, and he was tried and convicted by a military … Continue reading
Ballet bribery
One of prior probability‘s favorite social science papers is The Standing Ovation Problem by John Miller and Scott Page. (Here is a good summary of Miller & Page’s model.) So what happens when some members of an audience are paid … Continue reading
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Tagged Ballet, Bribes, Claqueurs, Deception, Standing Ovation Model
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Al Jazeera America bets on an American audience for serious journalism
Originally posted on digiphile:
I’m watching the launch of Al Jazeera America here in DC, on Channel 107*. (No HD in this media market, from what I can tell.) It’s the biggest launch in broadcast media since Fox News, in…
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A book that changed me
Originally posted on Book of words:
The inspiration for this blog post came from the Guardian site which encourages readers to contribute short blurbs about books that left them with a lasting impression. For me, my choice would be non-fiction…
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Elections are a public good
When we think of “public goods,” we often think of such things as roads, water works, and other public projects. But perhaps the most important public good are clean, non-fraudulent elections, since the legitimacy of our political system depends in … Continue reading
Is David Miranda a terrorist?
David Miranda has only two degrees of separation between himself and Edward Snowden, since he is the lover of Glenn Greenwald, who in turn is the journalist who revealed Snowden’s secrets. According to The Guardian, Mr Miranda was detained and questioned by … Continue reading
Mark Zuckerburg is a douche
Facebook has very Coasian bounty program for security researchers (i.e. hackers) who find bugs and other “vulnerabilities” on Facebook: it pays people a minimum of $500 USD to report such bugs to Facebook instead of using them or selling them on … Continue reading
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Tagged Bounties, Coase Theorem, Computer Bugs, Facebook, Khalil Shreateh, Mark Zuckerberg
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