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Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning
Type I vs. Type II errors
We’re almost done reading Deborah G. Mayo’s magnum statistical opus Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge (University of Chicago Press, 1996), a must-read for anyone interested in the philosophy of statistics. Her defense of conventional statistics or “Neyman-Pearson” methods … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability
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Are Star Wars fans anti-Bayesian movie-goers?
Does the theory of price elasticity of demand apply to cultural artifacts, like movies? On this question, we strongly recommend Harrison Searles’s in-depth movie review of the latest Star Wars flick The Force Awakens–a review we found via Marginal Revolution … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Science Fiction
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Mayo (1996): A Comment
Since summer, we’ve been carefully and slowly reading (off and on) Dr Deborah Mayo’s excellent tome “Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge.” It’s a tough read–we’re only up to page 192 of her book, less than half-way through, though … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability
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Risk assessment
If you’re afraid of terrorism, mass shootings, or sharks, then don’t get behind the wheel. Via Wikipedia: “On average in 2012, 92 people were killed on the roadways of the U.S. each day, in 30,800 fatal crashes during the year.” … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Probability
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Self-deception primer
Hat tip: Cathy O’Neil (via mathbabe.org)
Posted in Academia, Bayesian Reasoning
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The Mathematics of Bookmaking
In the gambling world, vigorish refers to the amount charged by a bookmaker, or bookie, for taking a bet from a gambler. We found the following formal definition of vigorish on the walls of a tavern in the Old Town … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Games, Probability
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Two cheers for Lee Kuan Yew …
A pragmatic politician, a benevolent despot (he was prime minister of polyglot Singapore for 31 years), or … the most influential statesman of our time? (Image courtesy of The Encyclopaedia Britannica.)
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Economics, History, Law, Politics
Tagged Economic Development, Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore
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Fair or foul? (Marijuana law enforcement edition)
Via Vox, more evidence that the “war on drugs” is a racist war.
An open letter to our frequentist friends
We have had to sit through a countless number of mind-numbing social science presentations and empirical papers during our academic career, most or all of which have relied on standard frequentist methods. We are writing today to request a favor. Why can’t we just admit … Continue reading
prior probability 