Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning

Public Service Announcement: all chemical weapons are bad

Why are some chemical weapons like Napalm and Agent Orange okay to use (as long as the U.S. military uses them) but others off limits? If we are going to continue acting as the world’s policeman and all-around moral enforcer … Continue reading

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Bad to worse (regime change edition)

1. 🇨🇺 Cuba: Fulgencio Batista (bad); Fidel Castro (way worse) 2. 🇮🇷 Iran: Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi (bad); Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (way worse) 3. 🇻🇪 Venezuela: Rafael Caldera (bad); Hugo Chavez/Nicolas Maduro (way worse) 4. 🇮🇶 Iraq: Saddam Hussein (bad); … Continue reading

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Anecdotal evidence does matter (United Airlines edition)

As members of the so-called “rationality community” like to say, the plural of anecdote is not evidence. (In 2016, for example, United Airlines denied boarding to only 3,765 of its more than 86 million passengers on overbooked flights, according to … Continue reading

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Justice Scalia’s Living Constitution

From Judge Posner’s forthright concurring opinion in the recent case of Hively v. Ivy Tech Community College, decided en banc by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit: “A diehard ‘originalist’ would argue that what was believed in 1964 defines the … Continue reading

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Age is just a number

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Compare X to Y

Let’s start with X. According to Jeff McMahan, here is a detailed description of the daily routine of one great thinker: There are many anecdotes about the ways in which [X] simplified his life to take as little time as … Continue reading

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Do we really need a supreme court? (In praise of judicial federalism: our final reply to Solum, for now.)

We will conclude our critique of public meaning originalism by posing the following judicial thought-experiment: What if we were to let the Supreme Court whither away? That is, what if the Senate simply stopped confirming any more new nominees to … Continue reading

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