Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning

Visualization of Jupiter’s massive size

Posted on September 24, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Science | Leave a comment

Is the Mona Lisa overrated?

Posted on September 23, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Posted in Art, Bayesian Reasoning, Culture | Leave a comment

How are big box stores like Wells Fargo?

Posted on September 22, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Lots of big box retailers like Walmart and Home Depot are ramping up their use of self-scanners in order to reduce their labor costs. That is, instead of waiting in a long line to have a cashier ring up your purchases, you can save … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Deception, Ethics, Game Theory, Law, Probability, Web/Tech | 5 Comments

Typology of parliaments

Posted on September 17, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this fascinating review of the book Parliament. (The review is by Margaret Rhodes; the book, by David Mulder van der Vegt and Max Cohen de Lara.) In summary, Mssrs. Mulder van der Vegt and Cohen de Lara studied the … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Law, Politics, Questions Rarely Asked | Leave a comment

“Sit with Us”

Posted on September 16, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

That is the name of a cool new App created by Natalie Hampton, a teenager from Sherman Oaks, California. Her App helps school kids navigate what one blogger (Maddy Myers) calls “the politics of the lunch table.” According to Ms Myers, “kids who … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Ethics, Web/Tech | Leave a comment

Cars kill more people than guns

Posted on September 15, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Claudia Dreifus, a writer for the NY Times, recently interviewed Edward Humes, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist. The subject of the interview is Humes’s latest book (pictured below) on the deadly dangers of automobiles. The book is titled “Door to Door: The Magnificent, Maddening, Mysterious … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Ethics, Law, Probability | 4 Comments

Simple Explanation of the Monty Hall Problem

Posted on September 14, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

This is the simplest and fastest explanation of the Monty Hall Problem we have ever seen.

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Games, Probability | 4 Comments

Amazon’s first hire

Posted on September 10, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Via kottke, we learned that the first person Jeff Bezos ever hired at Amazon was Shel Kaphan. In this illuminating interview in The Macro, Kaphan describes his first meeting with Bezos and the early days of Amazon.com. Here is an excerpt: … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, History, Questions Rarely Asked | 1 Comment

Two questions about degrees of belief

Posted on August 27, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Previously, we saw how the Bayesian notion of “degrees of belief” offers a possible solution to the preface paradox. Here, we shall consider some philosophical or epistemic objections to this idea of “degrees of belief.” In his thought-provoking and beautiful … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Mathematics, Philosophy, Uncategorized | 3 Comments

The Bayesian solution to the preface paradox

Posted on August 25, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

In our previous post, we presented Kenny Easwaran’s vivid description of the paradox of the preface. Briefly, the paradox is this: when a scholar writes up an academic paper, he would like to believe that every claim or proposition in … Continue reading →