Category Archives: Bayesian Reasoning

Strategic dating

Posted on July 26, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Roy Lugasi and Hod Gerlitz co-founded a new dating app called Weepo that allows users to monitor the male-to-female ratio at a bar or nightclub. According to this fascinating report by James Covert, writing for the New York Post, “The … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Culture, Economics, Web/Tech | Leave a comment

Contagion theory of violence

Posted on July 25, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this provocative open-access paper titled Contagion in Mass Killings and School Shootings (Towers, et al., 2015). Here is an extended excerpt (footnotes omitted): “We fit a mathematical contagion model to the data sets, with model terms that take … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Mathematics, Probability | 2 Comments

Visualization of the largeness of Hudson Bay

Posted on July 23, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Maps | 6 Comments

Censorship in Florida (FBI/Orlando police edition)

Posted on July 11, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Hey, what are the FBI and the Orlando police trying to hide from the public in connection with the massacre at Pulse nightclub last month? The police’s slow response to the Pulse shootings (it took the police over three hours … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Deception, Law, Politics | 5 Comments

Cars are far more dangerous than AR-15s

Posted on June 29, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

We understand all the fuss over “gun control,” especially after the recent tragic events in our home city Orlando, Florida, but statistically speaking, my fellow Floridians should worry more about pedestrian safety and the level of texting and driving on … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics, Law | 10 Comments

Price effects, virtue effects, and the law

Posted on June 26, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Richard Craswell, a law professor at Stanford, once posed the following question in his paper titled “Promises and Prices”: why do economists and philosophers who study law differ so greatly in the relevance they assign to price effects. Here is … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Ethics, Law, Probability | 2 Comments

30,000 days

Posted on June 25, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Check out this interview with Drew Houston, the CEO of Dropbox. Among other things, Mr Houston notes that the average human lifespan lasts about 30,000 days … so watch less TV, read more, learn and do new things, and make every … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics | Leave a comment

Is the EU dead now?

Posted on June 24, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

Is European Union starting to fall apart? It looks like parochial voters in England and Wales just outvoted their fellow U.K. citizens in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar to leave the EU. What if the Brexit vote had been held … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics | Leave a comment

Brexit odds

Posted on June 23, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

As a public service, let’s translate these betting odds into plain English. If a bettor wagers £10 that a majority of voters in Britain will vote to leave the European Union (“leave”), odds of 6/1 implies that the bettor stands to make … Continue reading →

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Economics, Law, Politics, Probability | 3 Comments

Blade Runner forever

Posted on June 23, 2016 by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

We are big fans of the movie Blade Runner. We even co-authored a scholarly paper titled “Clones and the Coase Theorem” in which we explore the problem of time-scarcity (the limited lifespans of the replicants in Blade Runner) in light … Continue reading →