Category Archives: Current Affairs

Censorship in Florida (FBI/Orlando police edition)

Hey, what are the FBI and the Orlando police trying to hide from the public in connection with the massacre at Pulse nightclub last month? The police’s slow response to the Pulse shootings (it took the police over three hours … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Deception, Law, Politics | 4 Comments

2016 presidential election forecast

Happy Canada Day! Check out this election forecast from our friends at FiveThirtyEight. Is Nate Silver underestimating Trump’s chances again? Or does Clinton really have this locked up?

Posted in Current Affairs, Politics, Probability | 2 Comments

Is the EU dead now?

Is European Union starting to fall apart? It looks like parochial voters in England and Wales just outvoted their fellow U.K. citizens in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar to leave the EU. What if the Brexit vote had been held … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics | Leave a comment

Brexit odds

As a public service, let’s translate these betting odds into plain English. If a bettor wagers £10 that a majority of voters in Britain will vote to leave the European Union (“leave”), odds of 6/1 implies that the bettor stands to make … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Economics, Law, Politics, Probability | 3 Comments

Where do we place our bets?

Trump "will no longer comment" on TrumpU case… over/under on how long that lasts= 24 hours? https://t.co/tbpgOVIQpB — Colin Camerer (@CFCamerer) June 7, 2016

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Law, Politics, Racism | 2 Comments

The Greatest of All-Time

In addition to the video below of Muhammad Ali’s greatest moments in the ring, we want to share this loving memory of Ali by our friend and colleague, the poet/writer Luanne Castle. Here is an excerpt: When I was a little … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, History, Truth | 2 Comments

Nate Silver gets it; Tyler Cowen does not

Two of our favorite public intellectuals on the Internet (is that an oxymoron?) are Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight) and Tyler Cowen (marginalrevolution). We admire Professor Cowen because he is one of the few economists interested in human nature and culture. He … Continue reading

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The Sith buy out the Jedi

In the fictional world of Star Wars, the Jedi are the good guys; the Sith, the bad guys. The evil Sith use the dark side of the Force to destroy the Jedi Order and to rule the galaxy for themselves. … Continue reading

Posted in Academia, Current Affairs | Leave a comment

Why did it take us so long to update our Trump priors?

File this post under “confirmation bias” or “reverse halo effect.” Nate Silver is the world-famous “data scientist” whose claim to fame is his ability to predict elections by aggregating polling data. Last summer (July 20, 2015), Silver explained why Donald … Continue reading

Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics | Leave a comment

Will this presidential promise be kept?

Earlier this year, we wrote up an in-depth series of blog posts discussing the moral bases of “the presidential pledge,” i.e. the solemn pledge all the Republican presidential candidates made to support the eventual nominee of their party. (Here is … Continue reading

Posted in Current Affairs, Deception, Law, Philosophy, Politics | Leave a comment