Have you ever seen a planet-shaped cake? Neither have we! Thanks to MahirFR (via reddit).
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“Jupiter Cake”
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Welders vs. Philosophers (“The Marco Rubio Fallacy”)
“Welders make more [income] than philosophers. We need more welders and less philosophers.“–Marco Rubio (Nov. 10, 2012)
In fairness to Marco Rubio, who we greatly admire, he is making a more general point about the merits of vocational education, but unfortunately, his core argument (i.e. we need to send more students into vocational training) is riddled with theoretical and empirical fallacies, starting with the “labor theory of value” fallacy. First of all, it is the market (i.e. supply and demand), not the inherent worth of one’s products or services, that determines how much one’s labor is worth. (This is why pro-athletes earn much more money than both welders and philosophers do.) Therefore, if the government were to subsidize welding school or take other measures to increase the number of welders, the wages of welders would go down, all other things being equal! Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, philosophy majors actually earn a higher level of annual income on average than welders do, as Faria Chideya explains in this short essay. So, if you don’t like books, go ahead and learn a trade (or play sports), but remember, market forces will determine your wages, not Senator Rubio.
Posted in Current Affairs, Economics, Politics
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Legal Risk (daily fantasy sports edition)
As we mentioned in our previous post, Eric Schneiderman, the Attorney General of New York, recently sent a “cease-and-desist” letter to DraftKings and FanDuel, ordering them to stop taking wagers from New York residents. Both firms have responded that they will fight this action in court, but will they win? Our friend and colleague, law professor Marc Edelman, has written up a comprehensive survey of the major legal risks in the Daily Fantasy Sports industry. (Check out some of his research in the area of sports law here.) In brief, state courts in New York have used a “material element” test to determine whether a particular contest is an illegal game of chance. This test, however, confers a high degree of discretion to the courts. In the words of Prof. Edelman, “it is possible for a court to find a contest is not determined by skill even if one can prove mathematically that the contest is 51% or more skill.” (See Edelman, in press, p. 24, footnote omitted.) So, how will this legal battle play out? Your guess is as good as ours …
Posted in Current Affairs, Law
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An Open Letter to the Attorney General of New York State
Dear Sir:
In your eloquent and well-reasoned cease-and-desist letter to DraftKings dated Nov. 10, 2015, you conclude that “Daily Fantasy Sports” is a form of illegal gambling under New York law. Specifically, you assert that “DraftKings has promoted … DFS [Daily Fantasy Sports] like a lottery” and that DFS is dangerous because of “the quick rate of play, the large jackpots, and the false perception that it is eminently winnable.” Accordingly, you “demand DraftKings cease and desist from illegally accepting wagers in New York State as part of its DFS contests.”
We write to commend your public service and your tireless efforts to protect the good citizens of New York from gambling the New York Lottery from unfair competition. After all, New Yorkers already have a wide variety of attractive [and legal] options for gambling at their ready disposal (the aforementioned New York Lottery). Moreover, the New York Lottery is certainly not as dangerous to the public as Daily Fantasy Sports are. Even though the New York Lottery (like DFS) offers substantial jackpots and creates false perceptions (see image below), it is operated by the state, so that’s okay. In short, unlike the crass commercial motives of the greedy and evil owners of DraftKings, the motives of the New York Lottery are pure and benevolent.
Again, thank you for protecting the citizens of New York and the New York Lottery from competition.
Yours truly,
Prior Probability
Posted in Current Affairs, Law
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Illiberal Yale?
Ivy League sentences to ponder: “It is therefore remarkable that no fewer than 13 [Yale] administrators took scarce time to compose, circulate, and co-sign a letter advising adult students on how to dress for Halloween, a cause that misguided campus activists mistake for a social-justice priority.” Conor Friedersdorf, a staff writer at The Atlantic, reviews recent events at Yale in this excellent essay.
Addendum (Nov. 13, 2015): “The upshot of this all is that lower tier administrators will be sending fewer all-student emails in the future … I’m not sure that’s a bad thing.” (Via Tyler Cowen, master of the Internet.)
Posted in Academia, Current Affairs
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“You better lawyer-up, ***hole …”
In the movie version of the bestselling book The Accidental Billionaires: The Founding of Facebook, Eduardo Saverin threatens to sue his friend Mark Zuckerberg when he finally discovers that his original 30% equity stake in Facebook–the social network business he cofounded with Mark and Dustin Moscovitz–has been diluted all the way down to “point zero three percent.” Eduardo confronts Mark: “You better lawyer-up, asshole, ’cause I’m not coming back for my 30 percent, I’m coming back for everything!” In other words, Eduardo threatens to sue for significant monetary damages … But given everything we’ve studied thus far (i.e. Lessons 1 through 9), under what legal theories could Eduardo sue Mark for, and what type of court (State or federal) would have jurisdiction to decide Eduardo’s legal claims? By the way, in real life, Mark actually sued Eduardo first! Why?
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The Mathematics of Bookmaking
In the gambling world, vigorish refers to the amount charged by a bookmaker, or bookie, for taking a bet from a gambler. We found the following formal definition of vigorish on the walls of a tavern in the Old Town section of Chicago: “Vigorish percentage can be defined in a way independent of the outcome of the event [being bet on] and of the bettors’ behavior by defining it as a percentage raked in a risk-free wager. This definition is the rake of the bookie as a percentage of total bets received if the bookie has balanced the wagers so that he makes equal profit regardless of the outcome of the event.” (The formula above applies to a two-outcome event.)
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Games, Probability
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Are smartphone videos “speech” or “conduct”?
This is an important legal question, since “speech” is generally protected under the First Amendment, while “conduct” can be prohibited and punished. At this year’s Loyola constitutional law colloquium in Chicago, professor Alan K. Chen explained why digital photographs and videos should be classified as speech acts under the First Amendment. (See his forthcoming paper “Free Speech and Democracy in the Video Age,” co-authored with Justin Marceau.) Given the ubiquity of digital photography and videos in our daily lives (think of all the police brutality videos and undercover videos of abortion “doctors” in the news lately), we consider this paper the most important one of the entire colloquium. By the way, if courts were to define digital photographs and videos as speech, wouldn’t corporations try to assert a right to privacy (the “Citizens United gambit”) in order to trump the speech rights of the public and of their employees?
The Money Team.
Posted in Current Affairs, Law
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prior probability 