These words of wisdom are Robin Hanson‘s. Hanson, an academic entrepreneur, promoter of prediction markets, and thoughtful blogger (his excellent blog is called Overcoming Bias), also has this to say: “I … know lots of academics, and they all have one or more research topics. And if you ask them they can usually phrase these topics in terms of questions they want to answer. And this is a big part of what makes academics more intellectually productive. But alas, few academics are able to articulate in much detail why it is important to the world that their questions get answered. * * * They seem to think it is someone else’s job to decide what questions are important. Unfortunately, most academic journal articles are answering pretty uninteresting questions.”
prior probability asks, why are there so many academic journals devoted to so many “uninteresting questions” (to borrow Hanson’s phrase). Also, what metric should we use to decide whether a question is “interesting” or not?
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en.wikipedia.org
It sure looks that way to prior probability. The mainstream news media, for example, are reporting that a 31-day student “sit-in” in Tallahassee, Fla. (the State capital) to protest the State of Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” self-defense law has come to an end … without accomplishing any concrete objective. The Florida State Legislature won’t repeal, amend, or even consider holding a hearing on this law.
So, what is the probability that this was the last chapter in the “Justice for Trayvon” movement?
Mark Levin, a lawyer, a former bureaucrat (*), and a conservative commentator, who has just published an intriguing book called The Liberty Amendments: Restoring the American Republic, says “yes.” In short, he calls for a new Constitutional Convention to “turn back the clock” (to 1787, we presume?) by curbing the federal government and returning power to the States. Other countries that have recently revised their constitutions (for better or worse?) are Egypt, Tunisia, and Venezuela. So, prior probability asks, Is Levin’s call for a new Constitutional Convention a dangerous ploy or a sensible proposal? If, for the sake of argument, we were to call a new convention, who would get to attend its proceedings and what voting rules would apply? Majority rule, or a 2/3, 3/5, or some other super-majority rule? Unfortunately, Levin hasn’t really thought through these important procedural questions.
(*) According to Wikipedia, Mark Levin was chief of staff to Attorney General Ed Meese in the 1980s.
Some “scientists” are now claiming that drinking more than four cups of coffee per day can increase the risk of death in some persons. But, aside from the fact that most published research findings are false, here is prior probability‘s response (via xkcd):
xkcd.com
According to Bored Panda, this is what a political map of the world would have looked like during the Permian geological period 300 million years ago.
prior probability wonders what will the world look like 300 million years from now?
There has been a lot of talk lately, especially in the legal blogosphere, about the new Department of Justice (DOJ) policy on mandatory-minimum sentences for drug offenses. See, e.g., these posts on popehat, volokh, and simple justice. What many commentators are neglecting, however, is the bigger picture: the dubious constitutionality, absolute stupidity, and gross injustice of the failed and racist “war on drugs.” Instead of just reducing sentences for a small class of drug offenses, prior probability favors a bolder approach: Eric Holder and his DOJ lackeys should use their prosecutorial discretion to refuse to enforce these stupid and unjust laws in the first place. After all, just because Congress passes a law does not mean that the executive branch is required to enforce it.
Does the policy of “network neutrality” or NN really make any economic sense? Does NN not lead to a tragedy of the broadband commons?
Consider the Google Fiber project in Kansas City, Missouri. For Google Fiber to work, Google needs to distinguish and price discriminate between (i) ordinary or “low-capacity” users, who move lower volumes of data through the network, and (ii) commercial or “high-capacity” users, who run greater volumes of data through the network.
But many smart people don’t understand this problem. Consider, for example, the opening lines of this recent report: “When Google was just a mighty search engine, the company championed an open, unfettered Internet. Now that it’s selling ultra-fast broadband Internet and TV service in Kansas City, Mo., with plans to repeat the service elsewhere, the tech giant bars customers from hosting servers on the Google Fiber network without written permission.”
But if ordinary consumers want to have access to Google Fiber at one low price, Google has to make this distinction between regular and commercial uses of the network and enforce this rule.
In her beautiful book American Scripture: Making the Declaration of Independence, Pauline Maier, a historian at MIT who died on Monday of lung cancer, described Thomas Jefferson as “the most overrated person in American history.” Is this statement a classic case of revisionism from a bookish scholar with no sense of reality or an accurate assessment of a man who avoided active combat during the entire course of the Revolutionary War? At the very least, TJ has to be one of the most ironic, if not hypocritical, men in our history: the author of “all men are created equal” owned as many as 177 slaves when he wrote those (empty?) words …
prior probability asks, what’s wrong with this famous picture? Who was left out at the Founding of the Republic?
Note: prior probability is reblogging this TED post because the visuals are so cool … By the way, do we really need standard universities, with their aloof professors and textbook rip-offs, when we have TED?
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