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Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol
Price effects, virtue effects, and the law
Richard Craswell, a law professor at Stanford, once posed the following question in his paper titled “Promises and Prices”: why do economists and philosophers who study law differ so greatly in the relevance they assign to price effects. Here is … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Ethics, Law, Probability
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30,000 days
Check out this interview with Drew Houston, the CEO of Dropbox. Among other things, Mr Houston notes that the average human lifespan lasts about 30,000 days … so watch less TV, read more, learn and do new things, and make every … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Economics
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Is the EU dead now?
Is European Union starting to fall apart? It looks like parochial voters in England and Wales just outvoted their fellow U.K. citizens in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar to leave the EU. What if the Brexit vote had been held … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Politics
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Brexit odds
As a public service, let’s translate these betting odds into plain English. If a bettor wagers £10 that a majority of voters in Britain will vote to leave the European Union (“leave”), odds of 6/1 implies that the bettor stands to make … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, Current Affairs, Economics, Law, Politics, Probability
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Blade Runner forever
We are big fans of the movie Blade Runner. We even co-authored a scholarly paper titled “Clones and the Coase Theorem” in which we explore the problem of time-scarcity (the limited lifespans of the replicants in Blade Runner) in light … Continue reading
Wittgenstein’s door handle
Via Dan Wang’s twitter feed, we unexpectedly stumbled upon this insightful but speculative essay by Christopher Benfey in the N.Y. Review of Books. In summary, Benfey describes the beautiful door handles (pictured below) the philosopher Ludwig Wiggenstein designed for a … Continue reading
Posted in Bayesian Reasoning, History, Philosophy
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prior probability 