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Author Archives: F. E. Guerra-Pujol
Evidence of match-fixing at the World Cup?
In German: here. In English: here. We blogged about this possibility on 23 June. So, we need to update our priors … World Cup match-fixers?
Faking it
We can’t help but cheer for Pepe (although his little headbutt looks fake too!) … Also, you will find a plausible theory explaining why players have an incentive to fake injuries in Michael Gard’s excellent essay Faking it: why football players feign injury. … Continue reading
“Bayesian reasoning” postscript
Note: We recently concluded a five-part review of the main points in Howson & Urbach’s important paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” (see our various Bayesian blog posts from 25-28 June). We now wish to present our own thoughts in this postscript. Spoiler … Continue reading
Is the offside rule in international football (Law 11) clear or confusing?
FYI: Here are the official guidelines for interpreting Law 11 (the offside rule in international football). Here is a useful Power Point presentation (consisting of 37 slides) explaining Law 11.
The problem of priors
Note: this is the fifth and final installment of our review of the paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach. We now come to the “main event”: the problem of priors. That is, where are you … Continue reading
Lies, damned lies, and … statistics
Note: this is the fourth part of our review of the paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach. (The fifth and final installment of our review shall appear on 28 June.) Let us return to Howson and Urbach’s Bayesian … Continue reading
Did Kurt Gödel really discover a loophole in the Constitution?
Our 2013 paper Gödel’s loophole considers two related questions: why have so few scholars taken Gödel’s alleged discovery seriously, and what was this possible logical contradiction in the Constitution? (Hint: it probably has to do something with recursion.) There is also … Continue reading
Beliefs are like gambles …
Note: this is the third installment of our review of the paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach. Thus far, we have seen how Howson and Urbach briefly consider the relation between probability and truth (see previous … Continue reading
Truth and probability
Note: this is the second installment of our review of the paper “Bayesian reasoning in science” by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach. Following their short introduction on gambling odds (see post below for a summary), Howson and Urbach present the … Continue reading
“Bayesian reasoning in science”
That is the title of this commentary by Colin Howson and Peter Urbach published in the journal Nature on 4 April 1991. (Howson and Urbach also published a book with the title “Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach”; see the image of … Continue reading
prior probability 